August, 1999

 

For 08/31/99 Tuesday $$

Ready to reverse to long for 2 days bounce. If it opens gap up, it should test Monday's low; stop 1318.00 buying bias (1319), target 1343 (or 25-30pts from low). If this 1318 does not hold... more down side (less likely for Tuesday).

For 08/30/1999 Monday $$

Trading range 1344-1364, target 1334-35 in 10-17 hours. 136x should be tested again before target. 1344 could be the support for Monday and bounce to test 136x. Update after open: for position traderers, stop 1354.50 should be valid for another 10 hours, better keep something on hand. [Stop 1354.50, we sold at 1352.5-1353 at open, covered 1/2 @1347 and the rest of postion @1335.00; position traders should cover all at close and see if re-entry is feasible at open.]

For 08/27/1999 Friday $$

Two scenarios: (1) if open gap up, selling bias, for target testing 1364 if broken, keep selling; if 1364 holds, then reverse to long for 1372-74 testing. (2) If open flat, stop 1372, selling bias, target 53 and monday-tuesday target 1333-132x. Scenario #2 is more likely!  IF 1374.50 HOLDS FOR FRIDAY, short term down trend will be confirmed and see scenario #2.[Both scenarios are for selling bias.]

For 08/26/1999 Thursday $$

Stop 1376, buying bias, target 1395-1412. Again,  a profit taking sell-off in the morning is possible. If gap up open at 1395,  we might reverse to short for a possible 25-35pts retracement. [08:23] <es99u> DMD update: market could PB to as low as 1373... take away 1377-76 stop now.[Too bad, it did not open gap up at 1395, otherwse, it would be great short. We exited our 1/3 long re-entry @1376 stop; position: flat]

For 08/25/1999 Wednesday $$

Stop 1358, buying bias, target 1384-5. In the morning, the profit taking sell-off could bring market to as low as 1356-60. [We missed the short in the morning. We sold all of our long position at 1367-68 and re-entered at 1363-4 again; exited all position again at 1376-79, missed re-entry at 1372-3; re-entered 1/3 long at close @1383.50]

For 08/24/1999 Tuesday (FOMC) $$

Stop 1355, buying bias, next target 1372-76. A 20-30 points profit taking is due in 10 CME hours.If market gets stalled at 76 area, we might reverse to short. If 1376-8 area could not be violated after 2 days. It would be a bad sign for rally. [Today,  we exited all of our long position @1374 (long from 1337-39) and re-entered partial long position @1362.50. Still long.]

For 08/23/1999 Monday $$

Within 3 hours after open, stop 1336, buying bias, target 1348-50; then see if reversal is feasible and get ready to reverse to short for a possible PB to test 1333; then reverse back to long again. On tuesday, exit at least 1/2 position before FOMC announcement. Target 137x  unchanged before weekend if there is no accident.[Holding long.]

For 08/20/1999 Friday $$

At Globex, market could hit 1335-36 after midnight and reverse and open at 1325-26... then plunge to test Thursday low. At globex, stop 1336.75. selling bias, target 1316 in 3 hours after open. If 1316 holds, reverse to long for both day trade and position trade. (We went flat at 1327-28 and ready to short again.) Another scenario: Rally into 1335 at open and plunge to test 1322-25, if holds, 1322 would be the bottom for long position (if open is not a gap down, this scenario will be highly possible.) Position buy should get ready. Friday could be a reversal day. [ Market only tested 1327 and it did reverse today. We entered long @1337-39 and holding.]

For 08/19/99 Thursday $$

If open at low, it should bounce to test 1339-41 in 3 hours, a reversal is possible with stop 1341, selling bias, target 1328 before close. WATCH OUT! 1301-1298 could be Monday's target. If 1341 can not be violated in the morning, buy side could be risky !! POSITION BUY should be careful if it is weak in the afternoon. [ Market did hit 1322-26, low is 1318}

For 08/18/99 Wednesday $$

A possible gap down open at 1337-39 area. If Tuesday's hi holds, stop 1350.50, selling bias, 1st target 1337-39 testing and 1323-7. After this testing, reverse to long side again and buy side target 137x. (Side line at Globex).If there is no gap down at open; it would be bullish. [Market did open gap down and plunged to 1337 immediately.]

For 08/17/99 Tuesday (CPI) $$

Side line for CPI number, otherwise Stop 1332.50, buying bias, target 1348.00 and see if a reversal for short is feasible;  this 1322-26 might be tested one more time.  As long as CPI is cooperative,  target 137x is possible before weekend. [ Market hit 1350 area and reversed.]

For 08/16/99 Monday

If market doesn't reverse at globex, a little rally at open.  Stop 1327.00, buying bias, target 1337 (or 42) in 100 mins after open;  then ready to reverse to short with stop 1338-9 for target 1322-24 testing.  After this reversal, better go flat before CPI. Exact stop will be available after open. For SA, better watch out.

For 08/13/99 Friday $$

Before Thursday close, we suggested in WarRoom: "If anyone is short, keep short overnight; stop 1305.50 (also good for globex), selling bias, target 1292."; "For small accounts, better wait until open." .... For globex, cover 1/2 @1297-99." (Should test low next week.) >>>> With this gap up open, market should rally to 1328-31 then a reversal should be possible. Last night we took 1/2 profit @1299 and 2/2 @1304 before PPI report.

For 08/12/99 Thursday $$

Stop 1298-1300,  buying bias, minimum target 1316.50+;  Watch out. If stalled at 1310-12, market could plunge to test 128x. [Market hit 1319.50 and reversed]

For 08/11/99 Wednesday $$

Stop 1285-86, buying bias, target 1302 in 3-4 hours after open. A 1/2 profit taking selling should be around 1293 area.(Exact stop will be available in WR). (Long term Position: We exited 1/2 @1283-4 area, ready to reverse.) This down trend should last for another 7+ days. [Market hit 1303 in 4 hours]

For 08/10/99 Tuesday $$

If 1297-98.50 holds, for scalping, we would be on buy side, stop 1298,   buy 1298.50, target test friday's hi; if not holds, watch out, could be choppy. down trend is not over yet, 1292 is the bottom of "fair value", but market might "spike" down to 1245-1265. (Position: Exited 1/2 long-term @1284.00 )

For 08/09/99 Monday

For 08/06/99 Friday $$

If job# is as expected. stop 1311, buying bias, target 1332 before end of Friday, then 1339-1342 on Monday is possible. If job # is stronger than expected (not too stronge)... then could buy a bargain. Could be 3 overlapped up days in a row. [ Market rallied from 1300 area to 1323]

For 08/05/99 Thursday

Just another 20-25 pts rutine bounce in the morning and then.... Stop will be avail in the WarRoom. So far, target 1303- 128x is still valid. This has been our favorite scenario.There could be a 300-500 points trading potential for next 20 days.

For 08/04/99 Wednesday $$

Job # day is coming up,  Buy side stop is 1325 area, target 1336-37 in 2 hours after open then would reverse to short if feasible, sell side stop is 1338.10.   So far, target 1303 -128x is still valid. This has been our favorite scenario.There could be a 300-500 points trading potential for next 20 days. [Market did hit 1337.50 in 2 hours and 1338.10 held for the rest of the day.]

For 08/03/99 Tuesday

So far, target 1300-1280 still valid. This has been our favorite scenario.There could be a 300-500 points trading potential for next 20 days. Stop level for Monday 1337-39 area. If 1337-39 broken, a 2-day bounce is likely.Target 1353 or 1365. Exact stop will be available in AM.  (updated: after open, side line for now)

 

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