Daily Market Direction - Nov

November, 1999

For 11/30/1999 Tuesday (S-T Trend: DOWN)$$

The correction should extend to this weekend. Longer term stop 1421, selling bias, target 1388 before weekend; trading range 1408-1416. Buy side no hurry now.

For 11/29/1999 Monday (Main Trend: Top?)$$

Swings between 1423-1408. Stop 1407, buying bias, target 1422; then reverse to short for target testing 1410; then reverse to long for target 144x.

For 11/26/1999 Friday (Main Trend: Top? )$$

We are long from Wednesday close. SA should be long too. Buying bias, target 1437-40 in 2-3 hours after open.Ready to reverse to short from 1437-1440 for target 1418 testing. "If" it can not break 1437 on this leg up this time, it could be down for 2 weeks and target is unknown so far. Another topping is around corner in 3 days ! IBM might plunge to 90 area. AOL could plunge too !! We might exit all stocks (including C.). DMD after open: Take 1/2 profit @1427-29 and keep scalping 1/2 @27-29; keep 1/2 with 1420 stop.)

11/25/1999 Thansgiving - Another topping is near in 3 days !! Watch Out

For 11/24/1999 wednesday (Main Trend: Correction/swing/UP)$

1400 should be a good support; 1408 -1423 trading range (swings) into weekend, then rally to 1450, and 1460. before 12/15 and 1480 before year end. But, if it has hard time breaking 1417 at globex, stop 1417-1421, selling bias, for 1387 target before month-end and the above scenario will change.DMD update before close: Buy, for target 1337-40. SA- wait until close, if it closes above 1420, buy at globex.

For 11/23/99 Tuesday (Main Trend: UP)$

Data not saved.

For 11/22/1999 Monday (Main Trend: UP)$

1410-12 is still valid. Our target 1437-1442 is around corner. a reversal of 30-40 pts is possible. Profit taking pressure is building up. It needs an excuse: Double witch? Full moon? GDP report? Thanksgiving holiday? Market should be whipsaw and choppy. If it it opens gap up, we would sell our long postion and probably try to reverse to short for scalping. After this hiccup, we will re-establish long again for more rally (target 148x-9x).

For 11/19/1999 Friday (Main Trend: UP)

For 11/18/1999 Thursday (Main Trend: UP)$

Please read yesterday's DMD again. If 1415 holds, it could rally 10pts per day to 144x before make a 30-40 pts PB. On Thursday: Trading range 1430-1410 in the morning and reverse to up side. Very likely, it would rally to 1429-30 at globex and plunge at opening. If open at 1429-30 area, stop 1431, selling bias, target 1410-12; then get ready to reverse.

For 11/17/1999 Wednesday (Main Trend: UP)$

TA might take profit on Wednesday, we don't disagree; "but" we are moving our weekend target higher to 146x if 1442.50 broken. Pivot 1425. If 1425 broken, profit taking target 1415. If it holds, rally 10 pts per day into weekend. Stop 1425, buying bias, target 1435-1442.

For 11/16/1999 Tuesday (Main Trend: UP)$$$

Before FOMC announcement, stop 1398-99, buying bias, target 1410 in 30-60 mins after open. After 1410, it would reverse to test 1399-1400 then reverse back up again to opening range and take 1/2 profit and wait for FOMC announcement. Unfortunately, it could go 20-30 either way. 10-20 mins before announcement, we would rather keep only 1/2 our long term position from 137x with 1382 stop. DMD update after FOMC: Target 1437-1442 before end of thursday unchanged. Keep long, keep AOL, keep C.

For 11/15/1999 Monday (Main Trend: UP?)$

Without FOMC scenario: Stop 1399-98, buying bias, target 1420 before FOMC announcement and 1440 before weekend. Again, watch out for the opening sell-off if it opens gap up at 1407-1414. Also watch out, if there is no opening sell-off it may rally big time and close at high again. If there is no gap up opening, market might be choppy and don't be agressive with buying.

For 11/12/1999 Friday (Main Trend: UP?)$$

On thursday, it closed at the day high which is abnormal from its recent behavior. Long side, watch out, a decent retracement is around corner. It could start the selling at tonight's globex or at Friday's open gap up, if there is one. Watch Out. But don't need to panic with stop 1382, next target 1414. DMD 7:50PM update: If this 1374 holds for another 1 hour, buying bias, target 1414 before Monday open.

For 11/11/1999 Thursday (Main Trend: UP)

Since 136x is still valid for one more day; thursday could be a whipsaw day, pivot is 1379.00, trading range, 1385-1373. Don't buy @hi and don't sell @low!!

For 11/10/1999 Wednesday (Main Trend: UP)$$

Without PPI scenario, market will open gap up above 78, very likely @1383-85; if you are already long from Tuesday low, minimum target 1378 and spike 1393, take 1/2 profit above 78. Ok now, from tomorrow's hi, there are 2 scenarios: (1) reverse to down side to test Tuesday's low (1362.50) then reverse to upside and breakout before weekend. (2) Break out on wednesday-thursday. Break out target 1xxx, 1xxx. This 1xxx low should be the new bottom for 1xxx.

For 11/09/1999 Tuesday (Main Trend: UP)$

Main trend is still up. Microsoft case might initiate a 2-day retracement (today is the 2nd day), then market should reverse up to resume the rally. This 136x is the major suppor which is still valid for testing. Tuesday, same as usual... make the hi in the morning, PB 3-4 hrs and reverse up. Trading range 1390-70.

For 11/08/1999 Monday (Main Trend: UP)$

Main trend is still up. Microsoft case might initiate a 2-day retracement. then market should reverse up to resume the rally. We did post a 2-day retracement on Fridayand it did open on Sunday at 1375. Shame. It did it again at Globex. Not much left. Monday: stop 1377.3, selling bias, target 1362 or 1358.50.before PPI. Keep in mind, before Tuesday opening, there should be a bounce to test 1377.30. Update after open: Both 1386 and 1373 are valid for testing befroe close.

For 11/05/1999 Friday (Main Trend: UP)$$

Stop 1363, buyiing bias, target 1385. With this job # coming up, on friday, it will be very volatile and trading range could be as wide as 1385-1357. Again, After hitting 1385, it could reverse back down and reverse back up for next week's target 140x - 141x. If job # is strong and market plunges, the support would be at 135x for a reversal up for next week's 140x and 141x.DMD UPDATE AFTER OPEN: [06:13:37] <sp> DMD update after job # - stop 1383, buying bias next target 1397.

Friday's WarRoom transcript: [12:38:51] <sp> selling bias is not over yet.[12:39:24] <sp> again... monday-tuesday... retracement !! [13:04:32] <sp> monday tuesday... for retracement.. [13:04:50] <sp> and wednesday could be the bottom for the final rally. [13:16:37] <sp> stop 1386.5 still valide for monday for selling for 2 days retracement, target still 72-73...57...

For 11/04/1999 Thursday (Main Trend: UP)$$

Stop 1361.50, buying bias, target 1376.00. In next 2 days, market will be tricky. On thrusday, market is going to test 1376 and an intra-day reversal down is possible; if it closed above 70, it should keep rallying. Next topping time will be 11/18-19.

For 11/03/1999 Wednesday (Main Trend: UP)$

[06:25:11] <sp> Good morning. DMD for 11/03/99: if 67.5 holds in 30 mins, selling bias in the morning, target 1355; then ready to reverse to long for 1375 testing; 11:00 AM update -- should close at 1361-1362.

For 11/02/1999 Tuesday (Main Trend: UP)$$

Should be another (squeezing) down day. Trading range, 1358-1375 before 10:30. if it opens at low, it should rally to test 1375. Stop 1376.5 should be valid for another day, selling bias for target 1348-1352 before Wednesday 8:00AM.

For 11/01/1999 Monday (Main Trend: UP)$$

Stop 1362, Buying bias, target 1393 before weekend and 1403 before next weekend and testing 1440 before end of November; one condition: 1385.5 needs to be violated first. If the job # matters, it should be a 1363-85 trading range for this week. Any short side scalping could be short-lived. Keen in mind, if 1385.5 can not be violated in 2 days, we might reverse to short side. Strategy for Monday reversal scenario: If 1377-78 can not be violated at globex, selling bias for target 1360-63 (gap down opening is likely.).