December, 1999

For 12/31/1999 Friday (Main Trend:UP )$

Market is going to test 1470 then two scenarios: (1) If 1470 not hold, it will plunge to 1460 area and reverse up to test 148x, then plunge to 1440 area then reverse up to 1500 (2) If 1470 holds, it will reverse up to test 1489 and test 1470 on monday, then rallies into wednesday for 1500 target, then "might" plunge 70-80 points in 5-7 trading days. Both scenarios, market will test 1470 on friday. <> For Friday - Scenario (2) stop 1482-3, selling bias, target 1470 testing. possible closing 1477-78; scenario (1) closing 65 area.

For 12/30/1999 Thursday (Main Trend:UP )

For Thursday - (1)  If open gap down below 1477, market should keep falling to 1470-69 and reverse to long again for 1480-82 testing. (2) stop 1477, buying bias, target will be available after open. (3) If market turns out to be choppy in 1477-84 trading again, it could open gap up and rally to 150X on friday.

For 12/29/1999 Wednesday (Main Trend:UP )$

Trading range 1472-1483 for topping with a possible spike 1489. If open above 1480 then 1484.1 stop, sell 1483.5, target 1473-71 and ready to reverse to long for final testing. The best possible timing for start of falling should be 8:00 thursday morning. That market stays below 1476 for more than 2 hrs will confirm the reversal. So don't guess the top !!

For 12/28/1999 Tuesday (Main Trend:UP )$$

Two plans: (1) Short side is for scalping only. At globex, stop 1481.75, sell 1481, no target available; as soon as this 1481.75 gets touched, short side must exit, no matter what. (2) If this 1481.75 is broken at globex, it will be buying bias for more rallying, next target 1502 on Tuesday and 1513 on Thursday.

For 12/27/1999 Monday (Main Trend:UP )$$

Two scenarios: (1) If Friday's high holds at globex, market might test 1470. stop will be 1480.25 for selling bias for 1470 target and 1466 (2) If it opens gap up above Friday's high, and there is no follow-thru in one hour; it should be selling as well and stop will be available after open. *If market does PB on Monday-Tuesday, ready to reverse to long again for 1500 target.

For 12/23/1999 Thursday (Main Trend: UP) $$$$

At Globex, stop 1453, buying bias, target 1465-69. ( On Wednesday morning, if 1445 holds, buying bias for target 1469 before Thursday close and watch out for final hour sell-off !!) Keep in mind: the main trend is still up. AOL could be a good buy soon. this 12/03 hi will be tested and reverse. Next week, market could PB first then reverse up and rally into January.

For 12/22/1999 Wednesday (Main Trend: UP) $$$$

2 scenarios: (1) If open at 1453-55, then trading range 1450.50-1460.50, buy low sell high. (2) If open at 1458, then trading range 1460-1445; stop 1461, selling bias, target 1451 and 1445, then reverse to long. AT GLOBEX, stop 1447, buying bias for possible gap up open at 1458-1459. On Wednesday morning, if 1445 holds, buying bias for target 1469 before Thursday close and watch out for final hour sell-off !!

For 12/21/1999 Tuesday (S-T Trend: down) $$

Main trend is UP, but watch out! For short term,  topping is in place. Market should try to bounce for next 2 days and plunge minimum target 140x before nex weekend. We would take this bounce oppotunity to exit most of our long position. Be careful, a spike up to 145x for SP is still valid before wednesday and a no rate hike could also triger the spike up before a plunge to 140x. For tuesday, if it opens below 1428, then stop, selling bias, target 1419 If open above 1438, stop will be available after open.

For 12/20/1999 Monday (Main Trend: Near Topping)

Buying bias, but,  there could be 2 scenarios at open: (1) open gap down then rally; (2) open gap up followed by a sell-off. Stop 1435.30, buying bias @1436.80-1437.10, target 136x-7x at FOMC announcement +/- 1 hour. Spike to below 1437 is still valid in 1-2 hours, especially after open. (We would eixt most of long, probably reverse to short after FOMC. 

For 12/17/1999 Friday (Main Trend: UP/Near Topping)$$$

From tomorrow to next weekend, market will be complicated; each day's close will affects long term picture. Long-term long position has to be scaled down within this 1445-1465 range. A 80-90 pts plunge is possible before 1/5/2000. All depends on the developement in next few days. Friday trading range: 1425-1445,47 (volatile). If it opens gap up or rallies at opening, we might reverse to short (selling bias) for 1420 testing; if it happens in 3 hrs after open, there is a possible reversal up to 1440 close (buying bias) and rally into Tuesday. Keep in mind, don't be greedy now. Only 20 pts left before the L-T picture becomes clearer. Mid-day update: 1420 no more! testing 1437 instead; buying bias unchanged.

For 12/16/1999 Thursday (Main Trend: Reversal up)$$$

Globex, Stop 1427.70, buying bias, target 1443-45; if it opens gap up at 38-39, take 1/2 profit; if market keep going up to 42-45, take 2/2 profit. DMD mid-day update: 1424.8 bottom line, buying bias, if not close at 1440 today, open will be.

For 12/15/1999 Wednesday (Main Trend: Reversal up)$$$

At globex, we exited 1/2 our long @1426. Market should be on selling bias, within 2-3 hours after open and try to reverse; so if it opens gap up, selling bias for 1420 testing and  1410 if 1420 broken. Today will be another oppotunity for reversal, If this 1427-28 can not be broken befroe 11:00, it will keep going lower and next reversal trial will be on Friday. (11/30/99 - 30-40 pts swings before FOMC; buy dip. Swings before 12/15. Ready to buy for position !! )

For 12/14/1999 Tuesday (Main Trend: Swings)$

Same trading range as Monday's 141x testing is still valid before the end of Wednesday. But... if CPI # is good, it may rally to 1447. If Monday's hi holds, it should be selling bias before Wednesday noon.

For 12/13/1999 Monday (Main Trend: Swings)$$$

Stop 1431, buying bias, target - testing 1442; and reverse to short for 1431-2 testing. If 1431 broken... it could be down to 1418 before end of wednesday. 10-15 tranding range for monday. We are buying 1/2 @1432 at globex with 1pt stop.

For 12/10/1999 Friday (Main Trend: Swings)$$$

Without PPI scenario: position stop 1418, buying bias, minimum target 1442 and possible 1460; day trade stop 1425.70, buying bias, minimum target 1442, possible 1450. If target gets hit within 3 hours after open watch out for profit taking sell-off for reversal trade target 1428-1432 before market close. (All stops apply to globex too.) ** If market has problem breaking 1435, watch out, ready to reverse to short for 1409-1405 target next week.

For 12/09/1999 Thursday (Main Trend: Swings)$$

The Wednesday's final hour plunge (SP00H from 1431 to 1420) should be our sure trade for Thursday morning. Bottom is near. If it opens @1430, then sell @1433-35 for 1420 testing one more time. then reverse to long for 20-30 pts bounce. Exact stop will be available in the room. DMD mid-day update: please Tuesday's DMD.

For 12/08/1999 Wednesday (Main Trend: Swings)$

Before 12/15, 20-30 pts trading range and retracement low should be in in next 2 days. Spike 1400 is still valid for tomorrow. Try to day trade buying at 1400-1404 area for 20-25 bounce. Strategy: buy low and sell high.If open at 20 area, selling bias, target 1400, stop will be available after open; and ready to reverse to long for 20-25 pts bounce. ** DON'T SELL EMOTIONALLY AT LOW.

For 12/07/1999 Tuesday (Main Trend: Swings)$$$

After Monday's close, it fell to 1423.50. We exited the left 1/2 with a little profit and go flat. It indicates Monday's low is not low enough. If maket open between 1427-30, selling bias, target 1412-1408 (gap fill-up) and get ready to reverse to long for a swinging up.

For 12/06/1999 Monday (Main Trend: Swings)$

Two scenarios: (1) if open gap up, then Friday's hi should be taken out. Most likely it would open gap up at 1446 area. At globex, stop 1437.80, buying bias, target gap up open @1446 and rally to test 1450. If it is the case, ready to reverse to short at 1450 testing for 1437 target in 3 hours after open; then reverse to long ! (2) If it is not a gap up open at 1446; stop 1448, selling bias target 1432-1422.before end of Wednesday and buying is no hurry.

For 12/03/1999 Friday (Main Trend: Swings)$$$

Without job report scenario, stop 1406.50, buying bias, target 1416 (resistance) and spike 1420.  before close. A spike down to 1404-1400 is still valid, if it is a strong than expected job number. This rally should  extend to contract rollover day. DMD update after open: if gap holds for one hour, target 1453-56.

For 12/02/1999 Thursday (Main Trend: Swings)$$$

Stop 1398.00, buying bias, target 1412-1414; after target, reverse to short, target 1391-1392.50   Profit potential: 2 trips 30 points.

For 12/01/1999 Wednesday (Main Trend: Swings)$$

Three scenarios, (1) For buying bounce - if 1383 holds, stop 1380, reverse to long, target 1400-02. (2) If 1383 holds, stop 1380, trading range 1384-1394; after trading range break-out, target 1410; then reverse to short again for 1387 target.(3) At open, rally all the way back up to 1415, then plunge to 1387.

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