Monday (Main Trend: Swings up )
points trading range for bottom, carefully buy bottom for
bounce, from 1355-1362, target 1385-90; then reverse to short
for 1355-62 target before Wednesday noon. Stop is around
1357.40 for buying bias. For sell side, the only less risky
level is 1385-90.
Due to the strong
GDP, market skipped the 1438 target and plunged.
Monday-Wednesday will be for a trading range of 1385-90 bounce
target and 1360-55 testing. If this bottom holds, market
should creep back to 1438-42 -- the missing number due to the
strong GDP, before 02/10/2000.
Friday (Main Trend: Swings )
a rally fails again on Friday, then there might not be any big
move before FOMC and month-end could close down. (most likely
1410-12 for monthly close.) Update
after GDP: GDP
# is stronger than expected, market plunged to 1380 in just 45
seconds. Side line now. This 1396 is the pivot.
Thursday (Main Trend: Swings )$
As of 23:00, 1408 survived and
the last trade was 1416; cannot do anything now at globex.
Three scenarios: (1) It could hit 1420 and reverse back down
before the open and make a rally attempt final 2 hours; buying
bias at the range low. (2) Open gap up @1417-20 and sell off
for profit taking and test globex low (1408); and reverse to
up side, just like Wednesday. (3) open gap up and keep
rallying. A rally is
expected for all 3 scenarios, for
1437-42 target, (potential 1462 target next week.); we are
still keeping the call options.
BA's buying zone is 1410-1300 (cuz
low testing is still valid), 1395 should hold, no matter what,
for 1437 target. If there is no rally on Thursday afternoon,
it will try on Friday.
01/26/2000 Wednesday (Main Trend: Swings )$
(If market has a sell-off at open and
closes unchanged, then Wednesday could be a down day. )
First target for his up-swing is
at least 1337-144x..."BUT" any sensitive news could
force market to test 140x again before weekend. Bottom line:
the low should be in already before next big down-swing.
01/25/2000 Tuesday (Main Trend: Swings )$$$$
is bouncing at globex right now. Ready to sell if it bounced
15-20 points from the low. If market opens gap up, (stop
1420), selling bias, sell one more
time for low testing (target 1390-95 is possible) then reverse to
long for the first bounce of 20-30pts.
01/24/2000 Monday (Main Trend: Swings )$$$$$$
called this big time plunge last week!!
Before FOMC, Jan 12th low testing is still valid. The best
timing for buying would be around Jan 26, 2000. A profit taking
sell-off is due in 2 days target 142x.
Wait until Jan 26, 2000. We would
not add anything before Jan 26. AOL probably not a good buy so
far. Market will plunge big time and violent Monday-Tuesday.
scenarios: (1) If it is opened at 1457-58, try 60 stop,
selling bias for 10 pts. (2) If it is opened at 1452-53, it
could test 58; selling bias. (3) If it is opened below
and above 61, then try 1463.5-64 stop, selling
bias. Market will plunge to 1421 easily before 1/26/2000. If
market is closed at low, keep selling on Tuesday.
01/21/2000 Friday (Main Trend: UP after Swings )$
We are expecting more plunge before Jan 26. Position
stop 1466, selling bias, target 143x before end of next
Tuesday then reverse to long. The bounce will be all the way
back to 148x high testing. It is very important that you judge
the risk between 1430-1480 and make your entry based on your
equity. On Friday,
it should be closed at 1454-57 (most likely).
01/20/2000 Thursday (Main Trend: UP after Swings )$$$$$
Target for this leg up is 1485.00-1488. If
it opens @range hi, we might
try to reverse to short side. (There is a chance market hits
target and reverses before the opening.) We are still patiently waiting for Jan
26 to add long term position. Just watch out, it is still in a
triple top setup. You might think you would miss. Bottom line:
we are NOT going to buy at high. On Jan 26-27, even if it
might not be the lowest, it should be a secondary low.
01/19/2000 Wednesday (Main Trend: UP after Swings )$
If you are short from Tuesday,
cover 1/2 @1463.5 at Globex. Try selling
bias again for 1.5 more days. If market opens gap down, then
it sould behave like Tuesday, it should creep up for 2-3 hour
and plunge afternoon. Stop will be available after open.
01/18/2000 Tuesday (Main Trend: UP after Swings )$
leg up (from 1/11 low) is pointing to 150x before end of
Wednesday and a profit taking sell-off would step in within
10-12 hours.Stop 1470.00, buying bias target
1500-1504 in 10-12 hours. Wild card: spike down to 1465. DMD
update after open: SP will test 1476-77 at final hour, if fails.. it
For 01/14/2000 Friday (Main Trend: UP after Swings )$
CPI is a bad number, market should plunge to test 1450-53 area, buy bargain at this level
for 1478-8x target. If CPI is a good number, too bad, it will open gap up above 1472; then
we will see if a short (10 pts profit) is feasible. Glad we bought something on Wednesday
For 01/13/2000 Thursday (Main Trend: UP after Swings )$
If CPI is a bad number, market should plunge
to test 1450-53 area, buy bargain at this level for 1478-8x target. If CPI is a good
number, too bad, it will open gap up above 1472; then we will see if a short (10 pts
profit) is feasible. Glad we bought something on Wednesday low.
For 01/11/2000 Tuesday (Main Trend: Swings )$$$$$
Market is holding at globex above 1470; it will be choppy and
whipsawing in the morning and possible profit taking sell-off after 10:30-11:00. Monday's
low should be taken out afternoon. If there is no sell-off afternoon and it bounce back
up, then Wednesday morning could open gap down. DMD update after
open: selling bias, target 1462 before end of tuesday, target 1452-48 before wednesday
close.(wild card: spike testing 75)
For 01/10/2000 Monday (Main
Trend: Swings )$
Market should open gap up and 20-30 pts plunge within 90 mins
after open. Try selling bias at topping and buy back afternoon.
For 01/07/2000 Friday (Main
Trend: Swings )$$$$
Market tends to be crazy at Globex lately, stop level
will be available after open. Still in trading range, Without Job # scenario: Try to
stay on the buy side on Friday, because 1427 could be taken out this time, target could be
1437 or 1444. Watch out for final hour sell-off.
For 01/06/2000 Thursday (Main Trend: Swings/DOWN )$$$
(1) If open between 1405-08 then: Stop 1412, selling
bias, target 1396 testing then see if reversal to buying bias is feasible. If stop for sell side 1412 broken, it will go to test 1417-9 again
and plunge again to test 1386 before end of Friday. (2) If it opens gap down at
around1386, then it will whipsaw up to 1400 and plunge to 1380. (3) Dow trading range
11200-11050 and close @11100-11130. Wild card: spike up to 142x again then
For 01/05/2000 Wednesday (Main Trend: Swings )$
Tuesday's gap down open ruined our selling bias plan. Keep in mind this week could be a down week. It means any bounce
could turn out to be testing low again before Friday's close. <> Ready to buy bounce
for 25-30 pts. As of midnight, Globex low was 1406-07. If market opens gap up 10 pts off
the globex low, then buying bounce will be feasible. Due to the high volatility, we better
wait for opening to see if buying is feasible. 1412 is the pivot. DMD
after open: target 1417-1422.
For 01/04/2000 Tuesday (Main Trend:UP/Swings )$
If it opens below 1472 and does not take out 1472 at Globex;
then stop 1473.10, selling bias @1471.50-72.50, target for testing 1458-9 within 60 mins
after open. 1/2 profit taking @1463-4 and 2/2 @1458-59. then get ready to reverse to long
for 152x target. But 1465 must be broken first by this reversal, otherwise,
it will be selling bias again for next target 1437. DMD update after open: stop 1448,
selling bias, target 1437 and 1420 (ir
For 01/03/2000 Monday (Main
Main trend: UP. rally is not over yet, but a profit taking
sell-off is likely before end of Wednesday. This 1484.50 is still the pivot. If
Market opens above 1484.50, then side line for a buying bias. If Market opens below
1484.50, this 1488.75 should be tested within 30 mins after open. If it has hard time
breaking it; stop 1488.70, selling bias @1488, target 1470-68; then reverse to long.