March, 2000

For 03/31/2000 Friday ( Main Trend: A larger Pull back is near before weekend. )$$

NQ (nasdaq futures) should open gap up 50-80 pts. If SP opens gap up above 1510, then it would test 1500 and stop will be available after open. If it opens below 1507 (or at 1503), then it might plunge to test 1493 and 1483-6; stop will be 1507.7-1508.6. Try to reverse to buy side at 1486 for 1540 target next week.

We would presume market would bounce after morning sell-off. If it can not maintain the bouncing power, weekly close could be at 1492-4.

For 03/30/2000 Thursday ( Main Trend: A larger Pull back is near before weekend. )$$$

Still selling bias, target 1492

For 03/29/2000 Wednesday ( Main Trend: A larger Pull back is near before weekend. )$$$

Two scenarios (1), Wednesday stop 1536.50, selling bias, target 1519-1920 within 90 mins after the open. If market can not manage back to take out 1529 after morning's plunge, it should plunge to 1492. (2) If 1536.5 were violated at globex, market might plunge at open to 1516 and reverse back up. 

For 03/28/2000 Tuesday ( Main Trend: A larger Pull back is near before Month-end. )$$$

If it opens at 1541 after hitting 1545 at globex; stop 1542.10, try to sell. Target will be a Dow's support was broken on Monday.  Try to reverse to buy side from 1533-28 assuming 1547 might be taken out. It has to break 1547 in 3-4 hours, otherwise another down day, target 1528-30.

Main Trend: This larger pull back is on the way already, target 1492 before month-end. 

For 03/27/2000 Monday ( Main Trend: UP, a little pull-back then reverse back up )

If it opens at 1552 (be careful with this 48-50 stop), market might spikes down to 1542-46 at the open and it should be a bargain. 09:00 AM Update: side line, market should close at 1540 area.

For 03/24/2000 Friday ( Main Trend: UP, a little pull-back then reverse back up )$$$

Update after open: 1540-38 should be stop for buying bias target 1560 take 1/2 profit and 1572 then take profit and reverse to short for scalping 10 pts, there is a possible spike down to 1533.

For 03/23/2000 Thursday ( Main Trend: UP, a little pull-back then reverse back up )$

Thursday should be a down day. Target 1499-1494 then reverse back up on Friday. BUT, if market can not take out  this 1512.70-1510, again market will be back up like Wednesday's.

For 03/22/2000 Wednesday ( Main Trend: UP, a little pull-back then reverse back up )$$$

(1) If it opens at 1505 area then try buying bias for 1518 target then 1525, 1532. (1510 must be broken within 2 hours); (2) If it opens at 1507, buying bias for 1518.50 target. (1510 must be broken); stop for both scenarios is around 1500-02. 

For 03/21/2000 Tuesday ( Main Trend: UP, a pull-back then reverse back up )$$$

Before FOMC meeting announcement (11:15AM PST), market should rally to test 1492, buying bias for 1492 testing target. If open at 82 area, try selling bias to scalp to 1473  and 1463 within 30-45 mins after open, then reverse to long for 1492 target and 1508-1512

For 03/20/2000 Monday ( Main Trend: UP, a pull-back )$$$

If last Friday's high (1497) holds on Monday, market should pull back to 1460-1457 before Wednesday open; then reverse back up.  keep in mind: main trend is UP with 1456 main trend support..

For 03/17/2000 Friday ( Main Trend: Bottom and turning up for bounce. )$$$

We called Nasdaq bottom again at 10:30 AM (Thursday) Dow's super rally should last for another 10-18 hours before a short-term correction. Stop 1473, buying bias, target 1494; then reverse to short (selling bias) for a PB (pull back) to 1460 close and a gap up open on Monday followed by a sell off again into Tuesday/1450-45. (More likely if CPI is as expected or unfriendly)

For 03/16/2000 Thursday ( Main Trend: Bottom and turning up for bounce. )$$$

Nasdaq should start to bounce (not up trend yet.) If PPI & CPI are friendly, sp should rally to 1436 and more.  If PPI is friendly, it could open gap up above 1422. Nasdaq should bottom out and start to bounce 3-4 hours after the opening. Buying bias, SP support is at around 1403, for target 142x-143x, day trade stop1410-09. We will be back in our long if PPI is friendly. 

For 03/15/2000 Wednesday ( Main Trend: Bottom and ready to turn for bounce. )$$$

First hour after the open, market should consolidate between 1375 and 1388 then rally to 1400-2. Globex stop 1376.80, buying bias, target gap up at 1386-87; then reverse to short one last time for gap filling then reverse to buying bias. As soon as 140x target achieved, watch out, there is a potential plunge all the way back to take out globex low.

For 03/14/2000 Tuesday ( Main Trend: Nasdaq topping for 500 pts correction, Dow's bounce in doubt )$$$

Still selling bias. 

Within 2 hours after the opening, market should plunge from 1413 to test Monday's low 1381 area. If it opens at lower level, try to scalp buy side with 1397.2 stop,  it should rally to test 1413 before plunging to test Monday's low (stop 1413.50, selling bias). Ready to cover short and reverse to long "after" Wednesday.

For 03/13/2000 Monday ( Main Trend: Nasdaq topping for 500 pts correction, Dow's bounce in doubt )$$$

Still selling bias, SP should plunge to limit down on Monday.

For 03/10/2000 Friday ( Main Trend: Nasdaq topping, Dow's bounce in doubt )$$$

from 03/10, we want to unload the stocks that is in sync with Nasdaq index ;and we might try to buy Dow if Dow's up trend is convincing. Our timing map shows Nasdaq's short term topping is due on Friday or Monday for about 500 points plunge within 3-6 days.  We will exit at least 2/3 of our stocks on Friday and Monday. Our 2/3 stocks will be on side line for a couple of days during which Nadaq may plunge 500 pts. 

For 03/08/2000 Wednesday ( Main Trend:  UP )$$$

If it opens flat, we will be on buy side with 1350-51 stop. If it opens gap up at 1362, we will sell one more time for scalping 7-8 pts and reverse to long.

For 03/07/2000 Tuesday (Weekly Main Trend:  Daily Trend: Pull-back )$$$

(1) Market keeps falling into 03/09 (Thursday) to 135x and reverses back up to 1380 for a trading consolidation before FOMC and breaks out after FOMC. (This scenario is feasible,  135x should be secondary bottom for a rally into Month-end.)

(2) Makes the secondary bottom at 1380 area and rallies into FOMC and reverses.

Monday's PB low is not low enough, so it should be taken out on Tuesday. If it opens gap up, selling bias one more time for target 1380.

For Tuesday morning:

(3) If the opening is flat, it should spike up to 1400, stop 1401.00, selling bias, target 1382.20.

(4) If it opens gap up, selling bias, but be careful, it could spike up to 1402-4 and reverses back down for 138x target 

(5) If open below 1394, stop 1399.10, selling bias, target 1383

****If this 1380 is broken, scenario (1) should prevail and selling bias, target 1351-1350.

At the open, all of our scenarios are for selling bias. Market did plunge big time as we called it. 

For 03/06/2000 Monday (Weekly Main Trend: UP, Daily Trend: Pull-back )$$$

If it is a gap down open below 1408-9, then it should be a selling bias with stop 1412.10, for first target 1402 and 1392 before end of Tuesday.

For 03/03/2000 Friday (Main Trend: UP )$$$

Still buying bias. Dow jones should rally 200+ pts on Friday. SP 1372-4 is the secondary bottom for 1406 target either on Friday or Monday morning. After 1406, a 20-25 pts pull-back on next Tuesday-Wednesday. Dow hit bottom (9850) on  our target day -- February 28. SP was 5 pts higher than our call for 1322 bottom. Target for this leg up is 1397-1404, before next Tuesday, the latest. There might not be any decent pull-back before 141x target. Bottom line: main trend is UP and it is not over yet. We are still long.

For 03/02/2000 Thursday (Main Trend: UP )$$$

Bottom line: main trend is UP and it is not over yet. The low 1362, for Thursday, is still valid (but less likely.) Wednesday's low (1371) should be the new bottom for secondary rally.  two scenarios 

(1) Globex stop 1378.90, buying bias, target 1390-92 (or spike 1397.80). After target gets hit, watch out, market should reverse back down to take out morning's low and close at 1379-81 area. (2) Globex stop 1378.90, buying bias, target 1391-92 (or spike 1397.80); close at 91 area.

For 03/01/2000 Wednesday (Main Trend: UP )$$$

Target for this leg up is 1397-1403, but either on Wednesday or on Thursday, there will be a 12-18 pts profit-taking sell off. It could pull back to 1368. Bottom line: main trend is UP and not over yet. The low for Thursday (yes, Thursday) should be 1362.

For Wednesday, High 1386, Low 1368. If Thursday is the profit-taking day, Wednesday's low should be 1368 instead of 1362. If Globex is flat, then a profit-taking sell off for 10-12 pts narrow trading range is possible. If market opens above 1374.90, then take 1/2 profit @1378-9. DMD update afternoon: Buying bias between 1369-72 and buy 1400 call option.

1999 All rights reserved. Unauthorized access is prohibited.