July, 2000

IF GDP is bad, watch out for a spike down to 1433 target. 

Attempt trade for 07/27/2000 Thursday  (Main trend:  down swing)$$$

Stop 1476, sell @1475.20, target 1457. Major target 1433 is still valid before end of July.

Attempt trade for 07/26/2000 Wednesday  (Main trend:  swing)$

1450 is still valid before end of July, but 1475 has to be broken first. We are not going to give up short unless this 1496-7 stop fails. IF147x is the bottom area, major bounce will be 151x before August Job report. Before 10:30, buying bias, market would try to bounce to 1492-4 area (stop 1479); after 10:30, ready for selling bias,  market would reverse back down to 1476-1473 (stop 1494.50)

Attempt trade for 07/25/2000 Tuesday  (Main trend: swing)$

Ready to buy for one day bounce. This 1453 is still valid before (around) either final hour of Tuesday or first hour of Wednesday. And ready to reverse to buy side. Unless 1485.70 is broken in the morning, we still remain in selling mood. If this 1486.00 can not be broken in 2 hours, ready to short again for target 1457-53 before 11:30. And get ready to reverse to long for up swing.

[Result: 1485.70 broken, side line.]

Attempt trade for 07/24/2000 Monday  (Main trend:  swing)$$$

This pull-back is not low enough. We are not going to give up short. Stop 1496.70, selling bias, target 1479.80 within 5-8 hours. If 1479 can not hold, target 1463. As soon as this 1486 is broken, the gap of July 7 should be filled.

[Result: Market plunged again as expected.]

Attempt trade for 07/21/2000 Friday  (Main trend: Start to swing)$$$

If 1520 is intact at Globex, stop 1523.30 (might spike to here at open, selling bias, target 1501-1500 testing; if testing fails, target 1490-2. If this 1520-23 area is tested at Globex, then sell at globex.

[Result: High 1517 at Globex, plunged to 1500 and 1489, closed at low.]

Attempt trade for 07/20/2000 Thursday  (Main trend: swing)$

SP/NQ are going to swing. As we mentioned 2 weeks ago, after this 153x target, market should plunge 80-100 points (80 pts is more likely 1533-80= 1453) and would start to swing for a couple of weeks.

First down swing might not be over yet. preliminary target 1474.00, spike 1460. Major stop 1508.90, selling bias, target 147x-53 before this weekend. If  the plunge is not feasible in next 2 days but market has hard time breaking 1508.90 pivot, target might be hit in next week.

For bouncing scenario (possible after 2 days of plunge): It could spike to as high as 1518 and plunge again. This 1508.90 is a critical pivot. If it broken on Thursday, side line for 30 mins.

Stop, 1508.70, selling bias, risk 1 pts, target 148x. If 1508.70 broken, market will spike up to 1518 which will be normal !!

Buy JDSU 121.50 at opening. (We bought JDSU @121.50 and sold @129.00; and short HWP 132, target 121)

Attempt trade for 07/19/2000 Wednesday  (Main trend: Short-term topping)$$$

<SP/U> Although, a lot of people are anxious to buy (we dont understand why?), we still believe market would keep pulling back for another 7-8 CME hours, target 1478-1480. 

Pivot and stop 1518.80-1519.50, selling bias ,next target 1487 and 1478.20. 

Update after the open: stop 1515, selling bias, target 1493.50

Short GLW, PDLI, BRCD, BRCM, HWP, JDSU, JNPR

[Result: Covered all stocks, keep HWP short overnight.]

Attempt trade for 07/18/2000 Tuesday  (Main trend: Short-term topping)$$$

We might call the top again. We are ready to short. As we said, with good CPI report market could spike up and reverse back down. We have a lot of stocks ready to dump: BRCM, BRCD, JNPR, DIGL...etc.

Attempt trade for 07/17/2000 Monday  (Main trend: buying bias before Tuesday)$$$

<SP/U> Stop 1515, still buying bias, target 1535 if CPI is a good number on Tuesday. On Monday, market should try to test 1516-8 before 8:00 and reverse to buy side again for 1530 target. Watch out for final hour profit taking sell off. JDSU target 120.

[Result: open 1522, tested 1519 and reversed back up to 1532 high and sell-off final hour to 1522 close] 

Attempt trade for 07/14/2000 Friday  (Main trend: buying bias before next Tuesday)$$$

Try to buy dips to 1506 area again before end of next Monday. Support is at around 1503-06 area for buying dip, target 1527 before next Tuesday or SP 1536, NQ4200-4250 before next Wednesday. If PPI is ok, keep buying JDSU next target 120.

[Result: Gap up open at 1516, Low 1510, High 1526, close 1524]

Attempt trade for 07/13/2000 Thursday  (Main trend: buying bias before next Tuesday)$$

Try to buy dips to 1472 area again before end of Thursday, target 1517, 152x, NQ/U target 4200-4240 before next Wednesday. 

On Thursday, it would carry forward yesterday's profit taking sell off. Support is at around 1502-3 area for buying dip, target 1527 before next Tuesday. 

9:30AM update: stop 1403-5, buying bias at 1408-9, target 1418.5 before 11:30. Take 1/2 profit at 11:25 and keep 1/2 long overnight.

[Result: Open 1511, down to 1506, up to high 1516.5, close 1510. keep long ]

Attempt trade for 07/12/2000 Wednesday  (Main trend: buying bias before next Tuesday)$$

Update at open: Market opened gap up unexpected. Stop 1500, buying bias, target 1515 at 11:58. Buy JDSU @97 target 108-110, buy BRCM stop 225 target 255, buy LSI, buy HWP, but CSCO, buy QCOM, buy LSI.

[Result: Market rallied after we bought at open.]

Attempt trade for 07/11/2000 Tuesday  (Main trend: Swings, New bottom?)

Two scenarios:

(1) At Globex, stop 1495.20, selling bias, target 1481-2 (gap down open); then reverse back up to test 1495. If market does not get to 1493 or higher at Globex, we are afraid that we would miss this shorting due to this possible gap down open.

(2) If it opens above 1491.50, stop 1495.00, selling bias, target 1481.50; the reverse back up to test 1495.

Watch out... if this 1495 is intact on Tuesday, market would plunge to 1460 before end of Wednesday.

[Result: open 1488, low 1486, rally to 1505, 10:00 started to plunge to 1488 low closed 1495, globex back to1500]

Attempt trade for 07/10/2000 Monday  (Main trend: Swings, New bottom?)$

On Friday, SP did not pull back to 1493; Try to buy again at Globex with 1492.8 stop, target 1511.

Next turning date is July 12 - 13. Until then, don't short yet. If it opens gap up at 1507-8, try to reverse short side to scalp for 10 pts.

[Result: open 1494 low 1492 rallied to 1502.5 then started to plunge at 11:00 to 1490, 1491.5 closed.

Attempt trade for 07/07/2000 Friday  (Main trend: topping for the time being)$$$

At Globex, stop 1472, buying bias at around 1473-4, target 1483-1484.50. If 1484.5 broken, keep the long. If 1472 is broken even before the report, it should set a tone of 1484.5-1464.5 range.

[Result: Globex low 1473.50 our stop worked again. Open 1478.50, low 1476.50, high 1502, close 1494.50]

Attempt trade for 07/06/2000 Thursday  (Main trend: topping for the time being)$$$

<SP/U> Market will try to bounce after morning sell off.  

If market opens gap up, try to scalp short side again,  target testing Wednesday low. 

If SP globex does not take out 1470 before the opening, stop 1470, selling bias, target 1457.80 and reverse. 

If this reversal can not take out 1470-1472 within 3 hours and morning low does not hold; watch out, it would plunge to 1449 in the afternoon. 

We are favoring that it would reverse back up and close at 1470-72.

Let's expect a gap up open then short one more time. If it does not open gap up, good selling opportunity would be gone again. 

We are placing limit short at globex @1470 with 1472.20 stop in case it hits 1470 before 6:30AM.

[Result: Globex High 1467.7, open 1465, high 1477, low 1456.5, close 1472.5-4]

Attempt trade for 07/05/2000 Wednesday  (Main trend: topping around corner)$$$

 

<SP/U> Topping (from May low) is around corner. Market very likely opens gap down or sells off at opening for a little pull back, then reverse back up for 1506 target before 11:30, July 6.

If Globex 1492 is intact and the open is a gap down at around 1489-87, try to scalp short side with stop 1493-1494. risking 1 pt for target 1478-80. Then reverse to buy side. Stop 1493-94 will be fine tuned after the opening.

Update after open: Selling bias, target 1460-62.

[Result: Globex high 1493.7, open 1482, low 1458, close 1463]