August, 2000

Attempt trade for 08/31/2000 Thursday  (Main trend: Pull Back & reversal up )$

[SP/U] Including Globex, Stop 1509.10, selling bias, target 1493-1490 before end of Thursday; ready reverse to buy side before 10:00AM

Attempt trade for 08/30/2000 Wednesday  (Main trend: topping & Pull back )$$$

[SP/U] Including Globex, Stop 1519.50, selling bias, target testing 1490 before end of Thursday.

Attempt trade for 08/29/2000 Tuesday  (Main trend: topping )$

[SP/U] Stop 1532.50, selling bias, target testing 1490 before end of Thursday.

Attempt trade for 08/25/2000 Friday  (Main trend: topping is around corner)$

SP/u - will test 1508.50 and reverse up to test 1516 again. If 1516 broken, then test globex high 1519 and keep queezing.

If 1516 testing fails, it should be down to test 1504.50. If 1504.50-1503 broken, it would be first sign of reversal down, otherwise it would be choppy and squeezing.

Attempt trade for 08/23/2000 Wednesday  (Main trend: topping is around corner)$

<SP/U> Stop 1411.70, selling bias, target 1493.50. If it opens gap down, stay side line.

Attempt trade for 08/22/2000 Tuesday  (Main trend: topping is around corner)$$$

<SP/U> Market will keep squeezing upwards for 5-7 more hours. Support/stop 1500 before FOMC announcement, try to scalp buy side, target 1513 and 1523 before 8:00 AM Wednesday.

With stock long position, try to take profit after FOMC meeting and before end of Wednesday.

Index might well have a sell off on no-rate-hike announcement. 

If Market closes at high, watch out for gap down open on Wednesday.

Attempt trade for 08/21/2000 Monday  (Main trend: topping is around corner)$$

<SP/U> Market will keep squeezing upwards for 10-13 more hours. Trading range for Monday  1504.50 - 1493.00 (spike 1489) and reverse back up for no-rate-hike.

Attempt trade for 08/16/2000 Wednesday  (Main trend: NQ 400 pts swings, SP 60 pts swing)$

For buy side SP/U stop/support is still at 1486-88 area. If this 1502.5 broken, market will rally to 1509 and 1518 today and profit taking PB again. whipsaw range 1501-1486.

Without CPI, Stop 1502.5, selling bias ,target 1488-6.

Attempt trade for 08/11/2000 Friday  (Main trend: NQ 400 pts swings, SP 60 pts swing)$

Two scenarios for PPI report: 

(1) Bad or neutral report - SP/U, selling bias, target 1455-50. Stop level will be available after PPI report. 

(2) Good report - SP/U, try to buy 1465, for target 1485 testing and waits for CPI report next week. 

[Result: Market plunged to 1460-1 and reversed to 1484.75]

Attempt trade for 08/10/2000 Thursday  (Main trend: NQ 400 pts swings, SP 60 pts swing)$

Since we are at a high level, we better wait for the opening and decide the trading strategy in WarRoom. We bought PMCS at 201 and took 1/2 profit at 208-209 and 2/2 profit at 207.50

Attempt trade for 08/09/2000 Wednesday  (Main trend: NQ 400 pts swings, SP 60 pts swing)$$$

Don't chase buy side any more, market already in topping area.

Stop 1494.5, we successfully shorted SP/U from 1493.50, took 1/2 profit at 1487 and took 2/2 profit at 1482.50. 

Watch out BRCD, JNPR, ...little triple top and reversing. We shorted JNPR and covered with 7 pts profit.

Attempt trade for 08/08/2000 Tuesday  (Main trend: NQ 400 pts swings, SP 60 pts swing)

This up-swing is not over yet, but his NQ/U 3600 and  SP/U 1470 are still valid before 8:00 of Wednesday.  It is tough for SP to pull back to 1455 easily, because its trend is much more stable than NQ. Try to buy NQ/U dips at 3550 area.

<SP/U> Stop 1488.10, scalp selling bias, target 1472.50. If market opens gap down, watch out, it could spike up before plunging. If it opens gap up below 1488.10, still try to scalp short side.

<NQ/U> Try to scalp sell side. Stop 3740, scalp short side, target 3600 testing and reverse if support holds.

Attempt trade for 08/07/2000 Monday  (Main trend: NQ 400 pts swings, SP 60 pts swing)

Attempt trade for 08/04/2000 Friday  (Main trend: NQ 400 pts swings, SP 60 pts swing)$

<SP/U> Support 1440-45, target 1474

<NQ/U> Support 3500, target 3730

Without taking job report into consideration, our NQ/U map indicates that 3720-3450 down leg is valid before end of next Tuesday.

If job report is good and NQ/U gets stalled at 3730, watch out, it might do the triple bottom 3550. 

Attempt trade for 08/03/2000 Thursday  (Main trend: Reversal day)$$$

<SP/U> (Including Globex) Stop 1454.70, selling bias, target 1440~1437 before 8:00AM. We would try to short at Globex as possible as we can, because gap down open is possible. A minor  report 5:30 AM

<ND/U> stop 3530, selling bias, target 3420 on Thursday morning.

As soon as market achieves the target, cover the short and stay side line for 15-30 minutes. See if reversal is feasible or not. Don't be surprised if Nasdaq flush lower before a reversal.

Without factoring Friday's job report, the first bounce target 3800 and then 3900 in 3-4 days. If the job report is as expected, this Nasdaq 350-400 pts rally would happen fast. 

Attempt trade for 08/02/2000 Wednesday  (Main trend:  down swing and ready to turn)$$

SP was not in sync with high tech stocks on Tuesday, we better pay attention to Nasdaq futures (symbol ND00U) for trading direction for next 2 days.

ND/U would test double bottom on Wednesday and reverse. We keep accumulating nasdaq stocks. For this ND/U double bottom, there are 2 possible scenarios: (1) taking out last Friday's low 3465 and get to 3430 area and reverse. (2) testing 3470 and reverse. ND/U stop 3620, selling bias (scalping), target 3520 on Wednesday and 3420 on Thursday morning.

On our map shows that the best reversal timing would be at Thursday open if Wednesday is a down day.

SP/U stop 1450.50, selling bias, target 1435-32 testing.

If SP opens gap down a couple of points, stay side line for 15 mins.

Again, selling is risky and for SCALPING only, if you dont feel comfortable with shorting, try to stay side line and wait for buy opportunity for 400 ND pts up-swing.

[Result: open 1447, plunged to 1442 and rallied to 1459.75 with good new home and reversed after 10:00 down to 1448.75, closed at 1452.50]

Attempt trade for 08/01/2000 Tuesday  (Main trend:  down swing)$$

Monday's close was disappointing, it did not even close above 1443 pivot. Watch out ! last week's low would be tested in the morning. If Tuesday is a down day, Wednesday could be a down day as well.

Two scenarios:

(1) For bouncing scenario: This 1430 support must hold and 1445 must be violated. Target 1458.60. If it opens gap up above 1443.70, side line for 20 minutes.

(2) For bearish scenario: If this 1444.50 is intact at Globex, then stop 1444-1444.50, selling bias @1443, first target 1431 before 9:30, then 1422 testing before the close.

For either scenario, this 1430-31 should be tested. 

[open 1440, down to 1437, rallied to 1454.50 final hr plunge to 1444 close 1447.50]

Attempt trade for 07/28/2000 Friday  (Main trend:  down swing)$$

IF GDP is bad, watch out for a spike down to 1433 target. 

Attempt trade for 07/27/2000 Thursday  (Main trend:  down swing)$$$

Stop 1476, sell @1475.20, target 1457. Major target 1433 is still valid before end of July.

Attempt trade for 07/26/2000 Wednesday  (Main trend:  swing)$

1450 is still valid before end of July, but 1475 has to be broken first. We are not going to give up short unless this 1496-7 stop fails. IF147x is the bottom area, major bounce will be 151x before August Job report. Before 10:30, buying bias, market would try to bounce to 1492-4 area (stop 1479); after 10:30, ready for selling bias,  market would reverse back down to 1476-1473 (stop 1494.50)

Attempt trade for 07/25/2000 Tuesday  (Main trend: swing)$

Ready to buy for one day bounce. This 1453 is still valid before (around) either final hour of Tuesday or first hour of Wednesday. And ready to reverse to buy side. Unless 1485.70 is broken in the morning, we still remain in selling mood. If this 1486.00 can not be broken in 2 hours, ready to short again for target 1457-53 before 11:30. And get ready to reverse to long for up swing.

[Result: 1485.70 broken, side line.]

Attempt trade for 07/24/2000 Monday  (Main trend:  swing)$$$

This pull-back is not low enough. We are not going to give up short. Stop 1496.70, selling bias, target 1479.80 within 5-8 hours. If 1479 can not hold, target 1463. As soon as this 1486 is broken, the gap of July 7 should be filled.

[Result: Market plunged again as expected.]

Attempt trade for 07/21/2000 Friday  (Main trend: Start to swing)$$$

If 1520 is intact at Globex, stop 1523.30 (might spike to here at open, selling bias, target 1501-1500 testing; if testing fails, target 1490-2. If this 1520-23 area is tested at Globex, then sell at globex.

[Result: High 1517 at Globex, plunged to 1500 and 1489, closed at low.]

Attempt trade for 07/20/2000 Thursday  (Main trend: swing)$

SP/NQ are going to swing. As we mentioned 2 weeks ago, after this 153x target, market should plunge 80-100 points (80 pts is more likely 1533-80= 1453) and would start to swing for a couple of weeks.

First down swing might not be over yet. preliminary target 1474.00, spike 1460. Major stop 1508.90, selling bias, target 147x-53 before this weekend. If  the plunge is not feasible in next 2 days but market has hard time breaking 1508.90 pivot, target might be hit in next week.

For bouncing scenario (possible after 2 days of plunge): It could spike to as high as 1518 and plunge again. This 1508.90 is a critical pivot. If it broken on Thursday, side line for 30 mins.

Stop, 1508.70, selling bias, risk 1 pts, target 148x. If 1508.70 broken, market will spike up to 1518 which will be normal !!

Buy JDSU 121.50 at opening. (We bought JDSU @121.50 and sold @129.00; and short HWP 132, target 121)

Attempt trade for 07/19/2000 Wednesday  (Main trend: Short-term topping)$$$

<SP/U> Although, a lot of people are anxious to buy (we dont understand why?), we still believe market would keep pulling back for another 7-8 CME hours, target 1478-1480. 

Pivot and stop 1518.80-1519.50, selling bias ,next target 1487 and 1478.20. 

Update after the open: stop 1515, selling bias, target 1493.50


[Result: Covered all stocks, keep HWP short overnight.]

Attempt trade for 07/18/2000 Tuesday  (Main trend: Short-term topping)$$$

We might call the top again. We are ready to short. As we said, with good CPI report market could spike up and reverse back down. We have a lot of stocks ready to dump: BRCM, BRCD, JNPR, DIGL...etc.

Attempt trade for 07/17/2000 Monday  (Main trend: buying bias before Tuesday)$$$

<SP/U> Stop 1515, still buying bias, target 1535 if CPI is a good number on Tuesday. On Monday, market should try to test 1516-8 before 8:00 and reverse to buy side again for 1530 target. Watch out for final hour profit taking sell off. JDSU target 120.

[Result: open 1522, tested 1519 and reversed back up to 1532 high and sell-off final hour to 1522 close] 

Attempt trade for 07/14/2000 Friday  (Main trend: buying bias before next Tuesday)$$$

Try to buy dips to 1506 area again before end of next Monday. Support is at around 1503-06 area for buying dip, target 1527 before next Tuesday or SP 1536, NQ4200-4250 before next Wednesday. If PPI is ok, keep buying JDSU next target 120.

[Result: Gap up open at 1516, Low 1510, High 1526, close 1524]

1999-2000 All rights reserved. Unauthorized access is prohibited.

Hit Counter