September 2000

Attempt trade for 09/29/2000 Friday  (Main trend: Swinging )$$$

BAD SIGN: At Globex, SP opened gap down at 1472.... ready for 145x target or even lower.

If market opens gap down below 1465-4; stop 1470, selling bias, target 1455-53 (spike 1450-1448).

If it opens at around 1470, then Stop 1475-7, selling bias, target 1455-53.

Attempt trade for 09/27/2000 Wednesday  (Main trend: Swinging )$

Main trend is still down but bottom is around corner. For the rest of the week, market is more likely to swing between 1465 and 1445.  Strategy for this week will be "scalping". Don't try to over trade before weekend.

If market opens gap down, try to buy for 1.5 days bounce (at least 1465); but previous low (1438) better be tested and taken out by 1 tick first. Even market bounces there is a chance it will swing back down one more time before weekend. If it does not open gap down, wait 20-30 mins for clue; because a sell off to 1430 is possible before a bounce could start within 60-90 mins.

Attempt trade for 09/26/2000 Tuesday  (Main trend: Swinging )$$

[SP/Z] Monday's no-follow-thru already ruined the reversal up. For the rest of the week, market is more likely to swing between 1465 and 1445.  Strategy for this week will be "scalping". For short side: stop 1467, selling bias, target 1446.

Attempt trade for 09/25/2000 Monday  (Main trend: swings )$

Market will try to test 1465-4 area by profit taking sell off at open. Try to take a quick profit and buy back quickly at 1465 area with 1464-3 stop. If 1464-3 is broken, this 1455-3 will be inevitable.

Spike to 1455 is valid.

Attempt trade for 09/22/2000 Friday  (Main trend: Ready to reverse back up )$$$

If open at around 1444-46 area, stop 1447-8. selling bias and scalp the one hour flushing, target 1428.50-1426.

After it hits target, try to cover short and reverse to buy side for 30 pts bounce.

(It did not open at 1446. We bought after it bounced to above 1444.50, with 1444.50 stop for 1470 target before end of Monday.)

Attempt trade for 09/21/2000 Thursday  (Main trend: 1450 testing is still valid)$

[SP/Z] Since 145x testing is still valid (likely on Friday), be conservative.

For buy side: Stop 1465, buying bias, target 1482-3 testing. (Globex high 1475 and market opened below 1465)

If sp get stalled at opening at 1475, selling bias, target 1465, and 1450 testing is still valid.

Attempt trade for 09/20/2000 Wednesday  (Main trend:  mixed )

[sp/z] If this 1472 can not be violated, bottom is not confirmed.

Attempt trade for 09/19/2000 Tuesday  (Main trend:   )$$

[sp/z] One day bounce like last Wednesday is likely. Stop 1455, buying bias, target 1480-82 testing.

Attempt trade for 09/18/2000 Monday  (Main trend: Reversal back down again)$$$

[SP/Z]  Stop 1492, selling bias, next target range 1470-65 unchanged.

If SP/Z opens gap down at 1475 area, then better not sell within 60 minutes. Try to scalp buy side for 15 pts bounce and reverse to down side again. 

If it opens gap up, stop 1492, risk 1 point, selling bias for 1474-3 target.

A lot of stocks are bearish... try to short.

Attempt trade for 09/15/2000 Friday  (Main trend: Reversal back down again)$$$

Watch out ! SP is lagging behind, something wrong ! Especially the Dow Jones... looks like it just started the plunging.

Market will try to test 1510-1512 one more time with good CPI report. If it get stalled. We will consider to change bias to selling for 1475-1465 SP/U target and 3600-3580 NQ/Z target before October FOMC meeting (10/02)

Attempt trade for 09/14/2000 Thursday  (Main trend:  Short term reversal)$$$

"Market should bounce 2 days in a row ! Buying bias, target 1526-1530." is still valid; BUT Wednesday's reversal was not so strong as we had expected. It is behind schedule a little bit, so... be careful and conservative. 

SP major support 1498, stop for scalping is 1503, still buying bias, target 1518. 

Attempt trade for 09/13/2000 Wednesday  (Main trend:  Short term reversal)$$$

[SP/Z] Reversal day. Buying bias. At Globex sp hit 1499.20 and reversed. If market does not plunge to 1495 area in first 60 minutes, this 1499.20 should be the bottom; because Nasdaq has plunged 500 points already. Buy buy buy. 

Market should bounce 2 days in a row ! Buying 1526-1530. Keep in mind the bounce could be a fast one for 20-30 pts from Globex low. If this 2-day bounce fails, watch out, market could be down for 1-2 more weeks for 1487-5 and 1465 before reversal for year end rally.

Attempt trade for 09/12/2000 Tuesday  (Main trend:  Dow triple topping and NQ/U  will be bottoming soon.)$$$

[SP/Z] Market could open gap up 4-5 pts, but it is still selling bias.

Including Globex, Stop 1520.40, selling bias, target 1502-00 before noon and 1495-2 afternoon.

Ready for reversal, BUT, low is not in YET! Should be Tuesday afternoon or Wednesday open. Our map says Wednesday open 1495~93 and reversal up.

Attempt trade for 09/11/2000 Monday  (Main trend:  Dow triple topping and NQ/U  will be bottoming soon.)$$$

[SP/Z] Including globex, Stop 1521, selling bias, target 1507.80. If market opens gap down 10 pts (very likely), we would miss this short scalping. 

If this 1521 is broken within 30 mins after the opening, we would be side line and re-evaluate the feasibility of either short or long scalping; because 1523.50 is also a stop for short side.

07:40 Update in WarRoom - Anyone who bought earlier, better take profit at 1527-1530. This spike won't last for long !! Stop 1531, selling bias, target 1507.

Attempt trade for 09/08/2000 Friday  (Main trend:  Dow triple topping and NQ/U reversing)$$$

If it opens gap down, Friday's market should wipe out Thursday's gain. We are NOT going to chase buy side! We are favoring side line or short side and selling bias. We short stocks from Thursday close.

Attempt trade for 09/07/2000 Thursday  (Main trend:  Dow triple topping and NQ/U reversing)$$

If this 1488-1490 support holds within first hour, sp/u would bounce to 1504 before 9:00. Try to scalp buy side.

If sp/u holds above 1496.50 for more than 2 hours, there is a chance it would get to 1511-12 before close.

Summary: With stop 1490.50, try to buy bounce (for scalping), target 1504 and 1510.

Attempt trade for 09/06/2000 Wednesday  (Main trend:  Dow triple topping and NQ/U reversing)$$$

[SP/U] Market is most likely to open gap down @1507.50 followed by a quick plunge to 1500 testing before reversing back up to 1521~23.

At Globex, before the opening, try to short. Stop 1517.60, selling bias 1515-1517, first target 1507.50 and then 1501.70-1499.50. Thursday should plunge again if Wednesday market closes at bounce high. (Modified in WarRoom) 

Attempt trade for 09/05/2000 Tuesday  (Main trend:  Dow triple topping and NQ/U 4305-75 topping)$$$

<09/04 Mon> In this coming week, better scalp only; because Dow/SP and a lot of new-high (or near-high) stocks have a cycle for a short term topping again--Tuesday/Wednesday. Next re-entry of long position will be next week.

[SP/U] 1524.50 is the major pivot. If market stays below this pivot for more than 1.0-1.5 hours in a row, market would try to fill last Thursday's 150x gap. For bearish scenario: Use Globex high as stop for selling bias for 150x target and this 1520 must be violated to be safe.  

Attempt trade for 09/01/2000 Friday  (Main trend:  Dow triple topping)$$

After job report, sp spike up 1540, we took our profit at 1537 and side line on SP.

If you bought at 1520 with 1519 stop at Globex, take 1/2 profit at open, the other 1/2 for target 1547 (pay attention to Dow 11375).

For aggressive buyers, stop 1528.7, keep buying, for dow target/time. (As we said Dow jones target 11375.)

Watch out for final hour little profit taking sell off and Tuesday-Wednesday profit taking sell off.

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