January, 2001


Attempt trade for 01/31/2001 Wednesday (Main trend: short-term topping is near)$$$$$

FOMC announcement at 11:10, 

Hourly close below 1386.50: From 6:30 opening to 11:10, sp/h hourly close (7:30, 8:30, ... etc) can not be above 1386.50; and after announcement (any rate cut), it still can not close above 1386.50 (hourly) even it spikes up to 1393. Watch out, market will plunge to 135x and 133x before weekend. We will look for short entry with this scenario. 

<SP/h> Aggressive traders: Including Globex, stop 1376, buying bias before announcement, target 1386~93.50; then reverse to short after FOMC.

After target, a plunge to 1386 will trigger a short sell-off to 1370-68. Expected close: day low

[Result: market rallied to 1393 as expected and plunged to 1372 as expected. SP closed at day low as expected. We shorted both BRCM and QLGC at top and both of them plunged to day low

Attempt trade for 01/30/2001 Tuesday (Main trend: short-term topping is near)$$$

<SP/h> Stop 1363, buying bias, target at around 1380. [Result: day low 1363.50, day high 1383.50]

Attempt trade for 01/29/2001 Monday (Main trend: short-term topping is near)$$$

<SP/h> Stop 1357.00, buying bias, target 1370-3 before end of the day. [Result: Open 1360, Day low 1358.50, day high 1374.]

Attempt trade for 01/26/2001 Friday (Main trend: short-term topping is near)$

<sp/h> Globex 1364 stop, selling bias, target 1352.50. Most likely opening gap down at 1352. If it opens at 1352 market would bounce to 1358 then plunge to 1331. If market does open gap down at there, stop will be 1359-60 for 2nd sell off within 1st hour. Without sp/h taking out 1358, we will not consider a reversal back up. [Result: Market plunged to 1350.50 and took out 1358 and reversed back up.]

Attempt trade for 01/25/2001 Thursday (Main trend: short-term topping)$$

QLGC plunge seemed to indicate that topping is near or in already! A violent 2-3 days 60-70 pts pull back will follow the topping. Topping zone is 1382-1392. Frankly, 01/24 high is really close to this topping zone! First expected target 1332, 2nd target 1313-1317. 

<sp/h> Topping is near! or in already? Before 7:00 am, buy side is no hurry. Because 1372.5 stop for short side is still valid before 7:00 am. [Result: Market plunged]

Attempt trade for 01/24/2001 Wednesday (Main trend: )$$$

 Before 9:30, intra-day main trend is up; stop including globex 1362, buying bias, risk 1 pt, target 1380-1. If 1363-2 is broken within 30 mins, then this scenario will be void. Watch out for mid-day reversal down -- target 1358. {Result: Market rallied to 1379 as expected and plunged to 1365 mid-day}

Attempt trade for 01/23/2001 Tuesday (Main trend: )$$$

<sp/h> Including Globex, stop 1348.00, Buying bias, target 1371~73 before close; but 1348.50 must hold at Globex and day session. {Result: Day low 1348.50, day hi 1372.50}

Attempt trade for 01/22/2001 Monday (Main trend: )$

Major support 1340, buying bias.

Attempt trade for 01/19/2001 Friday (Main trend: )$$

If this Globex high 1371.20 can not be taken out within 30 minutes, market will pull back, but without breaking this 1364-3, no significant pull back (to 1352) will be feasible. [Result: 1371.20 was not taken out, market plunged to 1345.]

Attempt trade for 01/18/2001 Thursday (Main trend: )$$$

<sp/h> Month end target 1389~1396 is unchanged, 1330-1333 is new support now. 1329-33 is valid before 8:15am Thursday and this could be a good dip for buying. Gap down open at 1333 or lower is possible. Just buy dips. If market opens gap down at 1330-33, buying bias, target 1348 testing. [Result: 1337 day low and rallied to 1364, closed at 1355]

Attempt trade for 01/17/2001 Wednesday (Main trend: )$

<sp/h> CPI report will be released at 5:30 AM; if CPI is bad, sp/h would plunge to 132x, 131x before 8:15am Thursday and this will be the last dip for buying. 

Other other hand, if 1338.50(pivot stop) holds, market will keep going up to 1355, 1361 before close. [Result: day hi 1357 in the morning, low 1335 in the afternoon, closed 1341.50]

Attempt trade for 01/16/2001 Tuesday (Main trend: swing)

Choppy day.

Attempt trade for 01/12/2001 Friday (Main trend: swing)$

Pivot 1338.50, selling bias, target 1317...

Attempt trade for 01/11/2001 Thursday (Main trend: swing)$$

As long as it opens above 1316.90 and it holds for 5 mins, stop 1317, buying bias, target 1327.50-1332.50 within first hours, then take profit. PB level 1314-16 area, if holds, should close at high end again. [Result: Opened at 1320, low 1320, hi 1342.50, closed 1335]

Attempt trade for 01/10/2001 Wednesday (Main trend: swing)$$

If market gap up opens at 1313-6, selling bias target, 1307; If market opens gap down, it should be at 1300 area, stop 1297, buying bias... [Result: Market opened gap down at 1299.50 and rallied to 1327]

Attempt trade for 01/09/2001 Tuesday (Main trend: swing)$$

<sp/h> Profit taking day, market would close at day low at 1307.3-1308.60 [Result: market close at 1308.75]

Attempt trade for 01/08/2001 Monday (Main trend: swing)

<sp/h> Trading range 1300-1330... and expected close 1326. Stop 1300, buying bias, target 1330-1332. If sp/u does close as expected, 1310 will become the stop for Tuesday. 

Attempt trade for 01/05/2001 Friday (Main trend: swing) $$$

Short side: stop 1358 (for 2 days), intra-day stop 1354 (day session only), selling bias, target 1310.  If 1337 broken, target 1305-1315 and close at any day low.

[Result: Day hi 1356, day low 1303, Market closed at day low 1304]

Attempt trade for 01/04/2001 Thursday (Main trend: swing) $

Support 1333-1340,  for next 2 days (digestion), buy dips. Hardly would market turn bad overnight!! 

Attempt trade for 01/03/2001 Wednesday (Main trend:  )$$$

<sp/h> Institutions are going to buy back again. The pull back low could have been in. In next 5-6 days, there will be a lot of profit potential.

If it opens below 1306, market should plunge to 1292 and reverse back up.

Sell side: stop 1308.50 first hours only, target 1393-2 testing.

Buy side: Stop 1290, buying bias, target 1319-1320; expected close 1308.

As long as 1302 holds before 7:30 Wednesday, market will swing back up to 135x before this weekend or next Monday open.

[Result: Market hit 1368 today. We bought QLGC and CIEN at low.]

Attempt trade for 01/02/2001 Tuesday (Main trend:  )$$$

<sp/h> Since 1319  and 1309 are valid before the end of Tuesday or (Wednesday open),  Impatient buying is risky. If stop 1333 is violated, stay side line wait and see for 1 hour.

Stop 1333-1334, selling bias, target 1319-7 before noon and 1309-7 if it is a dead cat bounce (= failure to take out 1330 after 1319.)  As soon as the target is hit, ready to buy for bounce.

<10:20 am> stop 1316.7 now, selling bas target 1304-3; if 1309-7 broken target 1292 gap filling will be confirmed!!

[Result: Market plunged to 1289, 1292 gap filled.]

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