February 2001

Attempt trade for 02/28/2001 Wednesday (Main trend: Turning)$

<sp/h> Target 1257 is still valid, then 1247 and 1230-28. If you shorted from Tuesday close, try to cover 1/2 at 1260-2. 1243-7 before end of Wednesday. If there is a rate cut,  a quick 200 NQ pts bounce is possible. If there is no rate cut, it would be a down month and down weekend with lower SP to 122x. At 11:15, if sp/h drops below 1252, there will be no bounce, and 1230 will be confirmed, selling bias for limit down target 1230. [Result: Day high 1267, day low 1231.]

<nq/h> Target 1895-1875 (is a possible spike). 1970 is double bottom. Ready to scalp buy side for a quick bounce from this possible rate cut on Wednesday. If NQ/h opens gap down at 1895-1875 area, try to buy within first 30 minutes after the opening. If it does not open gap down, don't buy! Possible rate cut time is 10:00-10:30. Shorting is too risky in this time frame.  [Result: NQ/h hit our 1875-95 target range.]

Attempt trade for 02/27/2001 Tuesday (Main trend: Turning)$

<sp/h> This SP bounce is going into next Wednesday; but until then, there should be one more 20~25 + points down swing. 1240 is new support now.  Monday's NQ did not follow dow/sp's big rally. so a little hiccup is possible for Tuesday. 

Stop 1275, selling bias, first target 1263 (for scalping), then 1257-54 (target 1247 is valid before 10:00 tomorrow.

<NQ/h> WarRoom update: NQ/h 2030 pivot has been violated for 2 time, buying is not feasible; Nasdaq is going to test last week low. [Result: day high 1277, day low 1254, closed at 1264. Our short was stopped out once and shorted again covered short at 1254.50 and 1256.]

Attempt trade for 02/26/2001 Monday (Main trend: Turning)

This bounce target is 1256 or 1262. 

Two Scenarios:

(1) Reversal: If SP/h opens gap up at 1256-7 area and can not take out 1358, it will be choppy between 1257-1250 for 3 hours. If there is no follow through, market should start to reverse afternoon. (Follow-thru target is 1265 only). If the morning gap get filled, it would be a sign of afternoon reversal down (for possible 3 days in a row.) First reversal target 1237. If there is no sign of reversal within first hour, DON'T try to short.

(2) Follow-thru: Stop for buy side 1248, for 1256 target. If sp/h squeezes up to 126x, the the reversal (for profit taking) should be on Tuesday. [Result: Day low 1243, day high 1273, closed 1271; ]

Attempt trade for 02/23/2001 Friday (Main trend: Turning)$$

Two scenarios:

Buy side: Market will open gap up. At Globex, stop 1250-1, buying bias 1251-1252.50, target 1267, 1270. Any spike down before 7:30 is buying bias. (Try to buy stocks after hour before the opening.) Target 1280 day high on Monday if not on Friday, 1349 must hold though!

Short side: If 1349 does not hold within first hour, let it spike down and try to buy again later. [Result: sp/h opened below 1349 and buy side plan was void. We accumulated at low: MERQ, QQQ, BRCM, AMCC, NOK, NTAP, YHOO, NVDA, LSI, INTC, ORCL, CSCO.]

Attempt trade for 02/22/2001 Thursday (Main trend: Turning )$$

Next week, this 1240 will be tested one more time which will be the bottom for a rally into 3/8. From now on, better stay on buy side. Because market is going to manipulate rate cut news as we have been expecting and any day could be a rate cut day!! If it happens, target is 1300+ at least. 

<sp/h> Watch out, it could be one way market for 1266, 1269 target.

Two scenarios:

(1) Buy side: Stop 1250-1252, buying bias, target 1266-7 (1st little leg up) within 100 minutes after the opening; then 1269-70 (pivot) in the afternoon. (Market should test 1252 at the open.) (2) Down side: If this 1250-49 does not hold, next target will be 1233-5. 

DMD Update in WarRoom: At the open, Stop 1263, selling bias, target 1233-5 and ready to reverse to buy side. Buy March 1300 call option @1233, buy QLGC, QQQ, BRCM, JNPR..., take profit at sp 1260-63. Pull back target 1240, buying bias. [Result: Day low 1230, day high 1263. Market reversed as expected.]

Attempt trade for 02/21/2001 Wednesday (Main trend: )$$

<sp/h> If market can not take out1289 within first hour after the open (or over CPI report), it will be selling bias for target 1266-7. If CPI is bad, Stop 1289-1285, selling bias, target 1266. [Result: Day high 1286, day low 1255]

Attempt trade for 02/20/2001 Tuesday (Main trend: )

<sp/h> Stop 1295, buy side target 1319, 1325. If 1295 broken, it will be selling bias for 1278 target. [Result: Day high 1301, and 1295 broken, day low 1280]

Attempt trade for 02/19/2001 Monday

President Day: Market closed.

Attempt trade for 02/16/2001 Friday (Main trend: correction)$

<sp/h> NQ stocks plunged after hour trading. Friday could be a down day after 1336 testing in the morning (not possible now). Down side target 1317-20 only after the open or mid-day (for Thursday gap up filling).

As of 23:30, Globex sp has plunged to 1325. If PPI is good, it might spike up one more time for us to short; otherwise, we will miss the most part of short.

Short side target is around 1317-20 area. Not much left. Let's see where it would open at; if open is above 1327-8 area, try to short again. Once the target is hit, try to reverse to up side. **We are placing a limit short order @1335.50 before PPI report. [Result: What a shame! We called shorting bias, but market sp opened gap down 20 pts.]

Attempt trade for 02/15/2001 Thursday (Main trend: correction)$$$

<sp/h> Little bounce is not over, target 1328 is still valid. Including Globex: Stop 1326.75 - 1327.25, buying bias, target 1328. Reversal down for PPI uncertainty is possible in the afternoon. [Result: Globex low 1318.5, day hi 1335.50, closed 1333.50. We took profit on all of our stocks at the morning top. Stocks plunged afternoon.]

Attempt trade for 02/14/2001 Wednesday (Main trend: correction)$$

<sp/h> Before 8:30, trading range 1320-1332. If 1332 is violated, this 1340 then will be tested; otherwise 130x will be valid. Wild card target 1304.

If it opens at 1326 area (if not a gap down open), then stop 1328, selling (scalping) bias, target 1320. Market could reverse from 1320 area. Let's see where the low would be and decide the stop for buy side then. 

Aggressive trade: At Globex, if 1328 is intact 2 hours before the opening, try to short at Globex with 1328 stop. [Result: Day high 1327.50, low 1308.50. We shorted from 1326.50, covered 1322-1320; reversed to buy side @1312 with 1310 stop and took profit from 1319-1322.]

Attempt trade for 02/13/2001 Tuesday (Main trend: correction)$$

Two scenarios: 

(1) Long side reentry level 1330 (spike 1328-9 including globex)area, stop 1327.00, buying bias, target 1345-1349.

(2) If this 1327 stop is broken within first hour, buy side watch out, it will be side line (flat), but NOT for short yet !!

Summary: Globex 1330 is the key to either scenario.  If it holds at Globex - scenario #1;  otherwise #2 [Result: Morning low 1331, stop 1330 worked, took profit at 1337. 1330 broken afternoon and we reversed to short.]

Attempt trade for 02/12/2001 Monday (Main trend: correction)$$

<sp/h> Friday's 1318 is a major support. If this level can not hold, next target will be below 1300. 

25-30 pts bounce is expected. If it does not open gap down, try to use Friday's low as stop for scalping bounce, first target 1331, if 1331 is  broken and holds, target 1345-9 before end of Tuesday. [Result: Day low 1319.50, stop 1318.50 holds, day high 1338.]

Attempt trade for 02/09/2001 Friday (Main trend: correction)

<sp/h>  target 1349 testing before 9:00, we dont have stop yet, we need to see where the opening will be at. If it opens at 1337 area, stop will be yesterday day low, target 1349 will be hit less than 2 hours. If the open is gap down at 1327, then buy buy buy for 20 pts bounce. [Result: Opening was not gap down, buying was not feasible; so we changed our target to 1317. Day low 1318.50]

Attempt trade for 02/08/2001 Thursday (Main trend: correction)$$$

sp/h>  Two scenarios:

(1) Still Bearish: If the open is not gap down more than 7pts. Same stop like Wednesday morning (1356.50 area), still selling bias, target 1334-2 before 8:30~9:30 followed by a 10 pts bounce. Keep in mind market could open gap down on Friday before a reversal. So this 10 pts bounce at 1342-4 should be for selling bias too.

(2) Temporary Reversal: Test 1343-5 before 8:30-9:30 and bounce if 1343 holds.

Scenario #1 is more likely. {Result: Maket did scenario #1}

Attempt trade for 02/07/2001 Wednesday (Main trend: correction)$

<sp/h> On Tuesday, we covered our short position before the close due to uncertain CSCO earning report. Market plunged after hour. It is ok. There is always another chance.

Stop 1356.25, selling bias, target 1347-6; If 1345.00 holds, let's try to reverse to buy side with 1345 stop. {Result: We shorted 1356 and 1354.}

Attempt trade for 02/06/2001 Tuesday (Main trend: correction)$$$

<sp/h> Including Globex, stop 1357.20, buying bias, target 1365-6. Watch out for reversal down before the opening. If 1365 get hit at Globex, we will try to scalp short side with 1366.50 stop, target 1353-2. If 1357.90 is hold at the opening, market should test 1366 then 1372.

Watch out for final hour sell off due to CSCO earning report. If its earning is not as expected, we should have a gap down (10pts) open; otherwise 1372-6 target before 9:00  Wednesday. [Result: 1357.20 held at the opening and market rallied to 1366 and 1370.50; afternoon market plunged to 1356 and 1352 after hour.]

Attempt trade for 02/05/2001 Monday (Main trend: correction)$$

<sp/h> Two scenarios:

(1) Bounce from 1350 to 1365 as a dead cat on Monday then plunge to 1335 on Tuesday. Under this scenario, the opening should be flat and 1350 must hold!

(2) Plunge to 1333-0 Before 12:00. Under this scenario, it better open gap up, stop for short side is 1361-2. (This one is more likely if 1350 broken.) [Result: market followed #1.]

Attempt trade for 02/02/2001 Friday (Main trend: turning down)$$$

<sp/h> Thursday's sp rally was not coupled with NQ, so we don't feel comfortable! Two scenarios:

(1) Buy side: If the opening is neural, stop 1377 (1372 spike also a stop), buying bias, target 1389-92; try to reverse when this target is hit. 

(2) Short side: If it opens gap up at around 1388, try to short for 78 target and 1362-59; if 1372-73 broken, wild card target 135x (or 30 pts from high). 

1378 violation will be a warning for buy side, especially at open. Don't hesitate, react quickly. Stop 1382.50 selling bias target 1366, 1360-56. [Result: 1378 broken and market plunged to our 1356 target.]

Attempt trade for 02/01/2001 Thursday (Main trend: Turning down)

Stop 1378.70, selling bias, target 1356. If stopped out wait and side line.

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