March, 2001

Attempt trade for 03/30/2001 Friday (Main trend: )$

Two scenarios:

(1) If it opens gap up, above 1164.50, Wednesday's 1190 gap would be filled before 10:00. Stop 1160, buying bias, target 1190 (1160-1190 = 30 points)

(2) If it opens gap down, then it could be a down day, target 1140, 1130, with 1165 stop (after gap down opening). [Result: Market opened neutral at 1164.50-1165. It was choppy. DMD update afternoon: Stop 1161-3, buying bias, target 1179-82 is still valid before Monday morning.]

Attempt trade for 03/29/2001 Thursday (Main trend: )$

Two scenarios:

If it opens gap up above 1165:  Sell short again, with 1168.75 stop, first target 1140, then a consolidation is expected..

If it opens gap up above 1160: Selling short with 1165.50, target 1139. then a consolidation is expected.

Aggressive traders: sell at Globex 1164-67. If it opens gap down again, sorry, opportunity is gone again. [Result: Market opened gap down.]

Attempt trade for 03/28/2001 Wednesday (Main trend: )$

SP/m plunged almost 22 points from Tuesday high. At 23:30, sp/m last traded at 1173.

Target 1166-61 (with 1187 stop). Any stop for short side has been too far gone.  If it opens gap down for more than 10 pts, wait for bounce and short after 9:00. [Result: Opened gap down, day low 1155. Due to big gap down open, we missed the shorting.]

Attempt trade for 03/27/2001 Tuesday (Main trend: )

Mixed opening. Mid-day update after Dow 9735 violation: SP/m stop 1172, buying bias, target, 1188-93. [Mid-day low 1176, Day high 1195]

Attempt trade for 03/26/2001 Monday (Main trend: )$

3 days in a row rally. Monday is the 3rd day.

Looks like it is going to open gap up again. If it opens gap up, try to try like last Friday again--scalping 10-13 pts on short side and reverse to long side for 118x target. [Result: Market opened at 1165-67, we scalped short side for 5 pts profit and scalped again after 11:00; we cancelled 118x target due to intra-day low violation.]

Attempt trade for 03/23/2001 Friday (Main trend: )$$$

Update at the opening: Let's make 2 trades,

Trade (1) is for aggressive traders. Conservative traders wait for trade (2).

Trade (1): 1141.50 stop (or globex high), selling bias for target 1129-1127.

Trade (2): Stop 1126, reverse to buying bias, target 1153-56

 [Result: Morning high 1138, plunged to 1126.25. Day high 1155, Closed at 1153.]

Attempt trade for 03/22/2001 Thursday (Main trend: )$$

If Thursday is a solid up day, should be 3 days in a row (total around 380-400 pts).

Before any possible reversal up, there will a morning routine sell off. Stop for sell off is 1142.75, target, 10 pts frist... Let's see where would it open at. Globex, stop 1142-3 area, selling bias, with 1 pt risk. [Result: opened gap down and we shorted at 1130 and took 10-20 pts profit. Afternoon, we bought QQQ and 5 stocks.]

Attempt trade for 03/21/2001 Wedesday (Main trend: )

Ready to cover short and reverse for target 1173 on Wednesday and testing 1179-80 the next. Stop 1147.75, buying bias, target 1172-3; but before this reversal, there should be one more little sell off first if it opens gap up. For scalping short side: Stop 1160, target 1150. Aggressive traders: At Globex, buy 1158-9 area with 2 pts risk. Stop for buy side will be adjusted based on the opening. [Result: With lower than expected opening, we cancelled up side 1173 and 1179 targets. Opening was below our expected level, so morning short was missed.]

Attempt trade for 03/20/2001 Tuesday (Main trend: )$$

Before FOMC announcement, trading range 1170-1180. This rate cut price-in process has been disappointing.

Two scenarios:

(1) No follow-thru: If it opens below 1178 instead of opening gap up, then this could be no follow-thru case that the bounce could be short-lived! 1181-2 will be major pivot. If market plunges back below 1181 after FOMC announcement, it will be a BAD sign. Watch out for Wednesday gap down open. If 1170 broken, target will be 114x after announcement. (2) Follow-thru: If it opens above 1181, there should be more rally after FOMC announcement. 

<Dow> Monday... ready to bounce to 10050-10100. If rate cut can not make Dow close above 10000, it will plunge from 10100 to 9650 at least (about 450 pts).

WarRoom update: 1184-5 is the pivot, It it is broken after rate cut announcement, then day high as stop, selling bias, target 1171-3, if 1170 broken, 114x will be target. 

Attempt trade for 03/19/2001 Monday (Main trend: )$$$

Sunday-Monday, reversal bounce attempt again. 

Two scenarios on Monday reversal: 

(1) If 1158 holds within first 30 mins: Stop 1158, target 1185-7 on Monday and target ???? on Tuesday. (2) If 1148 does not hold: Side line and wait. [Result: Day low 1158.25, our 1158 held, and market rally to our target 1185.]

Attempt trade for 03/16/2001 Friday (Main trend: )$$

Setup of "assumed up trend" has not been ruined unless this PPI is bad and 1180-1177 broken; then go back to short side again.

Aggressived traders: Try to buy at globex 1184-2, risk 1 pt only. Take profit at 88-89 at globex.

DMD update after report: PPI,  as expected (+0.1), but core rate (-0.3) is better than expected (+0.1%), but 1181 pivot broken; sp/m bounced but stalled at 1190. Stop 1193, selling bias, target 1166 testing.

WarRoom update: After morning plunge, Stop 1160, buying bias, target 1176-9. Second trade: stop 1179 stop, selling bias, target 1168.50. Third trade: stop 1166 again, buying bias, target 1172.50-73.50. [Result: We made profit on 3 trades and one 1.50 loss trade. Due to the opening gap down, we missed 1190-1193 short.]

 

Attempt trade for 03/15/2001 Thursday (Main trend: )$$

<sp/m> Support 1181 pointing to target 1217. 

Aggressive traders: try to buy at Globex with 1181-83 stop. (It could open gap up more than 10 pts.) Conservative traders: Wait and  see how it will open and make decision then. (We are keeping QQQ and some stocks from Wednesday) We think we might have called this end of short-term down trend again. [Result: Globex low 1182.5, and day high 1193. Took profit above 1190. Shorted 1186-7 and took 1/2 profit at 1182 and 2/2 at 1187]

Attempt trade for 03/14/2001 Wednesday (Main trend: )$$

<sp/m> Aggressive trade: Globex stop 1202.75, buying bias, target 1212-3 testing. If it opened below 1207, market should fall again after testing 1213. Stop 1213, selling bias, target 1162. Wildcard: 1163.20 is still valid. Let's see how it would open and figure out buy side or short side.. 

<Dow> Testing 10000 ( and potential 9700)  before Thursday noon.

[Result: sp/m opened gap limit down at 1177; so our shorting plan was ruined.]

Attempt trade for 03/13/2001 Tuesday (Main trend: )$$

If it opens below 1190, then 1199-6 pivot (stop), selling bias, target 1170 (spike 1162) before 9:00 and reverses 20-30 pts for intra-day only. If it opens above 1196, side line for 10 mins and see..

Aggressive traders: try to scalp short at Globex with 1199 stop and cover at 1189. [Result: Globex high 1200, low 1189. Opened at 1199, we shorted one more time. Reversed to long at 1193 took profit at 1202; then 1196 stop, target 1209 for profit taking.]

Attempt trade for 03/12/2001 Monday (Main trend: )$$

In the morning, scalp the short side. It has plunged 10 pts at Globex. Let's see if we can scalp 10 more points down at the opening. Wild card: Dow Jones will be down 500 points.

Stop 1239.50, selling bias, target 1226 (even lower.) In the afternoon: Stop 1226, selling bias, target limit down (1205-7). [Result: SP high 1236.50, low 1185, closed 1193. Dow Jones plunged 475 pts and closed down 430pts.]

Attempt trade for 03/09/2001 Friday (Main trend: depends on job report)$$

DMD comment in Warroom: <sp/M> sp June contract. At open, stop 1370, selling bias, target 1254 testing; afternoon, stop 1254, selling bias, target 1243-4 limit down target. Expected close: 70% at the low, either 1248 or 1242. Today is the due day for Dow Jones to plunge 300-500 pts.  [Result: Morning high 1268, low 1247; afternoon, higt 1253, low 1242.50. Closed at 1245. Our stops and targets worked again. March 7-8 turned out to be our topping date we predicted 2 weeks ago.]

Attempt trade for 03/08/2001 Thursday (Main trend: )$ 

<sp/h> Market should consolidate for one more day. If sp/h does not open gap down, try to scalp short side for 7-8 pts again with Globex high as stop.

Short from 1267 and target 1260-57 within first hour. [Result: Morning hi 1268, low 1258 within first hour; reversed back up and closed at 65.]

Attempt trade for 03/07/2001 Wednesday (Main trend: Turning)$

<sp/h> Aggressive traders: At Globex, Stop 1263, selling bias, scalp target 1250-48, then 43-40. [Result: We shorted scalping from 1263 and took profit at 1256. sp/h 1254 is holding, it is still a up trend.]

Attempt trade for 03/06/2001 Tuesday (Main trend: Turning)$

<sp/h> If it opens above, openStop 1238, buying bias, target 1263 before close.

First hour after the opening, there should be a little sell off. Buy side is more preferable.

Attempt trade for 03/05/2001 Monday (Main trend: Turning)$

Buy side: stop 1231.50, target 1246 testing, then 126x. If the opening is above 1241, buy side stop will be 1234. 

Short side: If the opening is below 1241, stop 1241target 1232 testing; if buy side stop 1232 is violated, down side target will be 1219 on Monday. (But don't be aggressive with shorting.) [Result: 1234 held for Monday, we are favoring buy side.]

Attempt trade for 03/02/2001 Friday (Main trend: )$$

<sp/h> Watch out pull back at this after hour trading is not pretty.  NQ dropped below 1945 again after hour.

If tomorrow's open is at around 1237, we would have selling bias for one more time for 1224 target again like Thursday morning. 

After selling, will reverse to buy side again;  2 major support 1233 (1233 most likely reversal area) and 1224.

Stop for buy side is 1233 area.

Stop for short side is 1240 (if it opens below 1239.)

Market can go either side from here, let's see where the opening will be.  IF it opens above 1240... bullish; otherwise it will be ntra-day bearish only. 

[Result: Day low 1221, day high 1254, close 1234; market opened gap down at 1227 and our selling chance was gone; buy side, we got stopped out by 1 point; in the afternoon, we shorted from 1244 with 1 pt stop and took profit at1237; and missed the 2nd short by 2 pts, otherwise another 8 pts profit.]

Attempt trade for 03/01/2001 Thursday (Main trend: )$$$

<sp/h> There is a chance that sp/h would open gap down 15-20 points @1222-1220 area, target 1215, spike 1202. If Gov report (click for report estimates) is bad, 1215-02 will be confirmed. After this 1202, there should be a 30+ points bounce. WarRoom: Eight today or tomorrow for key reversal.

Bias: selling then reversing. At globex stop is 1243-7, selling bias, target at least 1224 if reports are bad. [Result: We sold at Globex 1238, took profit at 1233.25; sold again at open 1237, took profit at 1224; sold again at 1224, took profit at 1218. Afternoon, when sp broke 1224, we confirmed key reversal; we bought QQQ, QLGC, JNPR, etc at low and took 1/2 profit at bounce high, keep 1/2 overnight.]