Attempt trade for 05/31/2001 Thursday $
Including Globex, Stop 1259.50 , selling bias one more time, target 1246-44 testing before 9:00-10:00AM. Update at the opeen: Stop remains the same, selling bias, 1253 1/2 profit taking. After 9:00-10:00 market will reverse back up for bounce; expected close 1258.50. [open 1253, spike high 1258.25, day low 1249, closed 1257]
Attempt trade for 05/30/2001 Wedneday $
One more time, (day session only) still selling bias, stop 1274.25 (spike1275), target 1259-1260 before 8:30. Wild card target: 1249.00
Potential reversal up: Stop for buy side 1258.25, target 1276-7 target.
If this 1258.25 is broken, more selling into 9:30 Thursday; then another reversal potential for bounce into next Wednesday. [Result: Day high 1268, day low 1246.50, closed 1250]
Attempt trade for 05/29/2001 Tuesday$
Because of 1289 closing, 1.5 days bounce is not totally ruled out. If last Friday's low holds, we would be back to buy side for bounce with 1276.75 stop. Let's see where the opening would be. Last Friday's low broken, buy side is not valid; stop 1279, selling bias, target 1257-60 before Wednesday close.
Attempt trade for 05/28/2001 Monday
Memorial Holiday, no market.
Attempt trade for 05/25/2001 Friday
At Globex, SP did not move much and stayed at 1295.50 which is weekly neutral area. Side line at Globex. Let's see how it would open and make decision then. 1291-2 area is support before GDP. 1287 is support after GDP. Update at the open: Stop 1298.50 is back again, target testing 1288. Update after 1287 violation: stop 1290-92, selling bias, target 1278-9. [Result: Market opened at 1293 and plunged straight down without even testing 1295; what a shame!]
Attempt trade for 05/24/2001 Thursday $
Major support is broken. 1286 target and 1279 are valid. Stop 1298 (including globex), selling bias, target 1286, 1279. Gap down open at 1282 is valid.
Midnight update: 1286 should have taken profit. Next short will be same stop 1298-1298.50 area, short one more time before 7:30AM, target Globex low testing. [Result: stop 1298.50 worked, morning high 1297.50, plunged to day low 1283.]
Attempt trade for 05/23/2001 Wednesday $
As we mentioned before Monday close, including Globex: Stop 1316.50, scalp short side, target 1310-1309 profit taking. 1305 testing is still valid. If market spikes down to 1302-5 at the opening, try to scalp buy side.
Update at the opening: 1302 violation will void buying bias. Afternoon, major stop 1302, selling bias, target 1286 and 1279 before 8:00 Thursday morning (including globex.) [Result: Globex high 1313, low1309, open 1309.50, low 1290, close 1290.50. Our major stop 1316.50 working.]
Attempt trade for 05/22/2001 Tuesday $
Stop 1302.75, still buying bias, target 1335. If market spikes down to 1302-5 at the opening, try to scalp buy side. If sp closed at high again (133x), watch out for sell off at the Globex for 130x target). 1300 violation (on hourly close basis: 7:30, 8:30, etc.) will validate 1288 testing. If Monday's high 1317 is intact at Globex, try to scalp from 1316 to 1304.
Update at the opening: Stop 1319.50-1320.50, scalp short side for target 1310-1309. [Result: Open 1317.50, Low 1309, high 1319.75.]
Attempt trade for 05/21/2001 Monday
Should be up for another 1.50~2 more days. Tuesday is the timing for topping. Target 133x is valid.
Attempt trade for 05/18/2001 Friday $
As we commented 30 minutes before Thursday close: Stop 1295.75-1296.25, also for Globex, selling bias, target 1283.50. Take profit at Globex 1283-4. Don't expect market will plunge vertically! [RESULT: Open 1289.50, low 1283.50, high 1285.75]
Attempt trade for 05/17/2001 Thursday $
Stop 1286.75, buying bias, target 1296-9, (1306). [Result: Low 1286.75, high 1299.50, close 1291.75]
Attempt trade for 05/16/2001 Wedesday $
CPI report is due on Wednesday (5:30 AM)
Tuesday afternoon, Globex sp did not open gap up. We are still in selling mood unless 1272 is violated and holding. April 18 gap 1192 is still our target before the end of this month. Wednesday will be its last chance to test 1262 (then 1272) again.
If CPI # can not make it test even Tuesday high, any hourly close below 1250 will indicate a decent plunge. After 119x target, first leg bounce will be 20-30 points. Any hourly close below 1250 will indicate a decent plunge. Let's see how market would open. Preliminary stop 1258.70.
Update at the opening: For bearish scenario, sp needs to stay below 1250 on hourly basis and for aggressive short side, stop 1252; if 1251.25 is violated, NO MORE SHORTING. Stop 1264, buying bias, target 1270; 1270 violation will indicate target 129x. [Result: Globex high 1257.50, low 1236, day session open 1247.50, high 1290. First hour closed above 1250 and 1251.25 violated. Shorting plan void.]
Attempt trade for 05/15/2001 Tuesday $
At Globex: Stop 1246-7, buy side, target 1256-7 before the opening, target 1262-3 for day session. Short side, better wait after FOMC announcement. [Result: Globex low 1249, day high 1262.50, close 1257]
Attempt trade for 05/14/2001 Monday $
Stop 1243-44 area, buy side, target 1262 on Monday.
Attempt trade for 05/11/2001 Friday
Waiting for PPI report. In order for 1299 to remain valid, sp/m needs to take out 1272.50 and close above it. Major support 1250 must hold on hourly close basis.
Attempt trade for 05/10/2001 Thursday $
Thursday, trading range 1252-1273. Buy low, sell high.
At Globex, market will test 1265 then back to test 1264; then bounce for 1273-5 target after the opening. We will buy low, sell high. [Result: day high 1273.75, low 1256, close 1260]
Attempt trade for 05/09/2001 Wednesday $
Before Tuesday close, we commented, stop 1266, scalp short side at Globex for Tuesday low (1256) testing. [Result: At Globex, SP/M opened at 1265.50 and plunged to 1258 a mid-night; day low 1250.50.]
Attempt trade for 05/08/2001 Tuesday $
Shorting is still against main trend and risky. Before expiration day of up trend. Still try to scalp the buy side for the final stage. Major support 1255, target 1300. At Globex, sp already hit 1259.50. Basically, ready to scalp buy side again. Let's see how it would open and make plan from there. Target 1255 is still valid for wild card. [Result: After ES/m hit 1259 at Globex, market reversed to 1277, and opened at 1272, day session low 1256]
Attempt trade for 05/07/2001 Monday $
This 1260 needs to be tested. If sp/m opens with a couple of points of gap down, we will try to short in the morning and reverse in the afternoon. Let's how it would open and make decision in the Waroom. Stop 1277-8 area, scalping short side bias, target 1260 testing. [Result: High 1275, low 1262.50, close 1263.50]
Attempt trade for 05/04/2001 Friday $
5:30AM update: Globex high 1258.50. Job report is weaker than expected but market plunged immediately and most of the plunged we mentioned is done. Before this job report, our plan was to short at pre-market at 1258-59 with 1260 area stop for target 1245-42 target; and reverse to buy side for 1270-1280 target before end of Monday. Target 1235 and 1226 is valid now as we mentioned yesterday. Reversal level should be from 1235-1232, or spike 1228. After 1243.25 violation from the low, we commented no more short. [Open gap down at 1240, low 1235, reversed from 1235, high 1274, close 1273]
Attempt trade for 05/03/2001 Thursday $
Aggressive traders: At Globex, 1273.75, stop, selling bias, target 1262. Again... risk 0.5-1.0 point, because violation of this stop level will take sp to 1278 again like Wednesday's scenario, 1266 violation will take sp to 1262. Spike to 1252 before 9:00 is possible, if not happened, 8:30-9:00 will be time for reversal back up again. DMD update in room: Target limit down 1244 is valid. [Result: Stop 1273.75 is intact. Gap down open at 1261, Globex low 1258.50 as we said before yesterday's close that 1258 is still valid before today's 7:30AM, day low 1243.50 limit down, close 1254.]
Attempt trade for 05/02/2001 Wednesday $
Main trend is up but we don't want to re-enter at high before Friday's unemployment report. Gap down open at 1262 is Possible.
Aggressive traders: At Globex, stop 1274-75, risk 1 point only and give a shot, scalp short side, target 1262. Only 1265 violation should confirm a down day close at 1255-1252 area. [Result: Opened at 1276, and plunged to 1261.50 low, closed 1272]
Attempt trade for 05/01/2001 Tuesday $
At Globex, stop 1259-60 area, selling bias, target 1245 before 8:00 AM. If 1240 support holds, ready to reverse to buy side for 126x testing. If it opens gap up above 1256, try to scalp short again. If it opens gap down, then shorting opportunity will be gone. 1270 testing if 1240 holds for bounce scenario.
DMD update after morning 1256.50 violation: Stop 1251, buying bias, target 1265-68, then 1270-72. After 11:00, stop 1254-5, target 1268-70. [Result: Open 1252, Low 1245.50, High 1272, close 1271.]
Attempt trade for 04/30/2001 Monday $
If 1256.50 is intact at Globex, try to trade buy side after the opening. Stop 1256.50 (day session only), buying bias, expected day high 1275 (or spike 1278) is valid. Expected close 1260. Since there is a wild card 1230 close, watch out for afternoon sell off. DMD update when market reversed to 1267: stop 1270, selling bias target 1245. [Result: Globex low 1258.50, day high 1274.75 and rversed to 1248.50, closed 1253-4 as expected either 1260 or 1253-4.]
Attempt trade for 04/27/2001 Friday $
Two scenarios: (1) For buy side: If 1235 is holding at Globex, it will bounce again. Stop 1233, buying bias, target 1260.
(2) For short side: if it opens gap up, then try to scalp short side one more time within first 30-45 mins. If 1233-1235 holds, ready to reverse to buy side. We prefer buy side.
DMD update after the open: Stop 1244, buying bias, target 1266-70 on Monday. [Result: Globex low 1238, day high 1258, closed 1258]