DMD at the open: Stop 1127, buying bias, risk one point only, target 1140-1141; expected close 1133-37. [Result: Morning low 1127.25, high 1144.50, close 1135]

If the opening is above 1150 and 1156 is broken, then a bounce to 1165-6 testing is valid. This 1165 testing target is only valid before 8:00~9:00AM PST. If this 1155.50 can not be broken within first hour and 1250 broken again then, sell off will be triggered again. However market will plunge back down from 1165 (even for bounce scenario) to opening area afternoon. If this is the case, more selling on Friday. For half (or one) day bounce scenario: Stop 1150, scalp to 1165; then get ready to reverse to short again.

Opening update in WarRoom: (1) Stop 1149.50, selling bias, target 1137. (2) If market break 1150 from up side, then reverse to down side again, stop 1154.75~1155, selling bias, target 1137.... [Result: Open 1147, Hi 1154.50, Low 1127, Close 1130]

GDP report is due at 5:30 AM PST. Two Scenarios:

(1) Bearish Scenario:

Aggressive: Including globex: Stop 1166.75 area, selling bias, target 1158.50, (then 1137.50 if GDP is bad). If 1158 holds before 7:30 AM, then ready to cover.

(2) Bounce Scenario: 1176-77 pivot testing. If 1166.75 is violation before the opening, wait until the opening.

WarRoom Update after opening: Aggressive trade, stop 1168.75, risk 0.50 point, selling bias, target 1161.50-1160. <$>

Trading range: 1172.50~1185.50. Mid-point 1179. If it opened gap down at 1172~73 or 1176 is instact before 7:00 AM, ready to buy.

If Globex 1182 is intact, try to scalp quick short. Aggressive: 1181.75 stop, risk 0.75, scalp short. Conservative: Side line. If 1186 is intact for the rest of the day, morning sell off on Wednesday.

Pre-opening update: If 1176 broken, exit all stocks. Stop 1182.50-1183.50, selling bias, target 1172.50 Mid-day update: Stop 1173.50, selling bias, target 1162.75

Stop 1182-3, buying bias, next taget 1193. Wild card: 1178 testing before another 1192-96 attempt. Morning update: Trading range 1190~1180 or 1192~1182. [Result: 1192 achieved at Globex but opened at 1187.]

Trading range: either 1162.50-1172.50 or 1164.50-1174.50.

If Friday's close is above 1170, more rally on Monday (1185 target)

Including Globex, Stop 1164.50, buying bias, target 1172.50-1174.50; can only risk 1 pt, if 1164.50 broken, side line for the time being; wait and see if short is possible at the opening. [Result: Day low 1164.75, day high 1189, close 1187.50]

Sell off and bounce scenario: If 1170.50 is intact at Globex and morning opening is neutral or lower, then watch out for sell off at the open and before 8:15 AM. Potential trade: Stop 1170, selling bias, target testing Wednesday low1153-54 but 1162 need to be broken first. If the opening is not as expected, new plan will be available in WarRoom. (Anyone who still have 1/2 long from Wednesday, better exit 2/2 with 1165 breakeven stop.)

<WarRoom Opening Update: Stop 1172, scalping short, target 1167> <11:01 Update: from now on to 7:30AM 1162 testing is still valid>

Aggressive trade: Including Globex, stop 1160.50-1161, scalp short risking 1 point only (give a shot), take profit at 1151.50. Conservative trade: stop 1162, risk 1 pt.

For bounce scenario: If 1150 holds, 1170 will be tested after first hour consolidation; this 1150 can not be violated by 1 tick, otherwise... more sell off. If 1151.50 profit taking acheived at Globex and 1150.50 holds, try to scalp buy side for 8-9 points. If The above plan did not work out at Globex. More update in WarRoom at the opening.

<11:10 AM WarRoom Update> Stop 1155.75-1156, buying bias, target 1169-70.

Main trend is down. This Bounce from Monday is not over. (10 hours of bounce from Monday 7:00 AM) Stop 1171.50, buying bias, target 1187 (or 1192, 1196 if momentum is strong enough), take 2/2 profit if 1187 acheived at Globex. If it opened gap down below 1170, try to buy again efore FOMC announcement.

<11:15AM WarRoom Update> Stop 1180.50, selling bias, target 1171-72; if 1166-67 broken, stop 1171-2, more selling for target 1158-59 testing. [Result: Morning low 1174.50, high 1183.75, FOMC pull back 1175, bounced to 1179.50 one point below our stop, then plunged to 1156 close.]

For shorting and bounce scenario: Before 7:45 AM, try to stay short side. Selling bias, Stop is at around 1166.50-1167.50, Selling bias, target testing Friday's low; the see if bounce is feasible. (If it opens gap down, this 1147.75 will probably be hit immediately. For bearish scenario: If Friday's low is broken, next target 1147.75. If there is no sign of 1147.75 on Monday, watch out, it might be hit after FOMC rate cut.

Opening WarRoom update: Stop 1167.500, selling bias, target 1160 testing.

7:00 AM WarRoom update: Stop 1166.50--67.50, buying bias, risk 1 point, target 1186-1192 within 8-10 hours from 7:00 AM. [Result: 1167.50 stopped out, reversed to buy side at 1167.50. Day high 1177, low 1163.50, pull back low 1166.50, close 1175.75]

Still buying bias. Stop 1178-80 (including Globex), buying bias, next target 1197.75. Our aggressive trade: Try to buy 1/2 at Globex with 2 pts risk for 1197-1198 target (possible gap up open). If 1178 is vaiolated, side line for the time being and get ready for another re-entry. If it opened gap up or 1197-8 target achieved at Globex, try to scalp short side (10 pts).

Opening WarRoom update: Stop 1178.50, selling bias, target 1170-1168 testing. if 1168 violated, stop 1172, target 1162-63.

11:00 AM WarRoom update: Stop 1162, risk 1 point on buy side, target 1165 then 1168 testing. [Result: Globex stopped out 2 pts. Reversed to short at opening with 1178.50 stop... short again at 1170 with 1172 stop target 1163-4. After 11:30, 1163 buy side stopped out breakeven. Day high 1178, low 1158.25, close 1166]

Pre-Opening DMD: Stop 1178.50, selling bias, target 1175 take 1/2 profit and 1270 take 1/2 profit. Post-opening update: Bottom will be 1168.25. For Buy side, stop 1167.50-1166.50, target testing morning high 1178.50, if 1181.25 is violated then market is bullish. [Result: morning high 1178.50, morning low 1168.25, reversed back up to 1178.5 and 1186, close 1184.]

Important pivot 1196.25. For short side: Stop/pivot 1196.25, selling bias (including Globex), target 1180-1179. If this 1196.25 is intact for the rest of the day, last week's low 1170 will be tested on Thursday. For buy side: If it opened gap down try to buy for 1195-96 testing and reverse to scalp short within first hour; if 1196.25 is broken, try to stay on buy side. <8:10 AM WarRoom update> 2nd trade, stop 1189.75, selling bias, 1185 1/2 profit taking and final target 1180; then 1178-9 stop, scalp buy side for 1188-89t target. <11:00 AM WarRoom update> stop 1191, selling bias, target 1182.

[Result: Day high 1195.25, morning low 1180.25, mid-day bounce high 1190, close 1189]

Stop/pivot 1189-90, buying bias (including Globex), next target 1202-1205... Even stop is violated, just wait for another chance to buy. IF it is a opening gap up... watch out for a little short scalping.

[7:06 AM update] stop 1201.75, scalp short side with 1 pt risk, target 1194-93. [Mid-day update] Stop 1197.50-1198, short side, target 1190 testing.

[Result: Day high 1192.50, day low 1187.50, close 1192]

Stop/pivot 1188, buying bias (including Globex), next target 1202-1205.

 

CPI report due on 5:30 AM PST

Still buying bias for another 3 hours after the opening (10 hours from 8:00 AM yesterday), target either 1198 or 1202.

Stop for another buy will be available after the report; but for aggressive traders, try to buy with 1184.25 stop (including Globex).

Three pivots for Thurssday: 1192, 1182, 1174-74. Stop 1191-2, selling bias for 1182 target, if 1182 broken, target 1174. Mid-day update: Stop 1178.75, buying bias, target 1187-88 testing.

Including Globex, stop 1202, scalp buy side, target 1210-12 testing. Can only risk 1 point. If opening is gap up, watch out for reversal (down)

Three pivots for Wednesday: 1212.25, 1202, 1192. From Globex to 7:30 AM, trading range should be 1212-1202.

If this 1212.25 is intact for 1-2 hour, market will be testing 1202; if 1202 broken, target 1192.50. Mid-day update: stop 1207.75 selling bias, target 1199 morning low testing; if broken, target 1192. [Result: 1212.25 was intact, market started to reversed. at 1204 we gave 1207.75 stop, selling bias for 1192 target. Day high 1211.50, day low 1183.50]

Stop 1207.75, scalp short side (for globex too), target ...testing Monday low 1200. As we said before close, at Globex, ... short side can only risk 0.75-1.0 point (for aggressive traders only).

Pre-opening update: Stop 1207.75, selling bias, target 1200; then reverse, stop 1198.75, buying bias, target 1205-1207.75. [Result: Globex high 1207.50, low 1199, open 1204 and plunged to 1199 and bounced to 1207.75 and 1212.50]

Trading range for Monday-Wednesday: 1207~1227.

Since 1217 is an intra-day pivot/stop is also the mid-point of 1207-1227 trading range... market can go 10 points either side. For buy side... can only risk 1 point.

Let's see how it is going to open.

On Tuesday, there will be one last chance for sp to bounce above 1214. (FAILED) IF failed, then trend from July 25 would be ruined.

This 1214-17 testing is still valid beofore 7:30.

If it opens gap down, try to buy for 10 points scalping. (Stop will be available at around opening.)

If it opens gap up, try to scalp short. (For aggressive traders only; stop will be available at around opening.) Since unemployment report is due on Friday, Thursday's trading range should be 10-14 points. Opening update: Stop 1234, selling bais for scalping, target 1224-23. Expected close 1222-24. [Result: Globex high 1234.50, gap up opened at 1231, morning low 1222, afternoon low 1219, closed 1226.]

Support 1210, sp will try to test 1220-22 again before 9:00 AM; if there is no sign of testing, better watch out, down trend will resume. For buy side, including Globex: stop 1210, buying bias, target1220-22, if 1222 broken, target 1230. If 1210 is violated, wait side line for a minute.

[06:26 AM update] Stop 1214.75 stop, buying bias, targt 1230; 1/2 profit taking at 1218.50-1219.50; if 1222 violated, keep for target 1226-1230.

[11:00 AM update] Stop 1226, scalp short side, target 1222, if 1222 broken, target 1217-16 testing. Expected close 1220. [Reslut: It opened at 1219.50, down to 1215.75, then rallied to 1227... afternoon reversed to 1216.50... closed 1221]

DMD after the opening: Stop 1211, selling bias, target 1202. [Result: Bounced to 1210.25 from 1208 and plunged to 1204. Stop 1211 worked.]

Opening update: short side scalping first hour: stop yesterday's high, scalp selling bias, 1/2 target 1205, 2/2 target 1201. Then stop 1198-1200 stop, buying bias, 1/2 target 1208, 2/2 target 1219 (or 1200 breakeven stop)