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(1) The following attempt trade comments are delayed. (2) DMD Bulletin for tomorrow and Live trading room are only available to subscribers. (3) DMD Bulletin may be updated in WarRooms. (4) Past performance is not necessarily an indication of future performance. (5) There is risk of loss in trading futures and options. (5) Pacific Standard Time. 

( $ = Proven right direction. ! = 1 point stopped out. SP = sp500 future, NQ = Nasdaq futures.) 

November 2001

WEEKLY FREE TRIAL: every Wednesday

USER CODE: sp500, PASSWORD: guru


Attempt trade for 11/30/2001 Friday <$>

Trading range 1147.50~1137.50 or 1149 ~ 1140.
Stop 1136, buying bias, if GDP report is cooperative, target will be 1155 before 7:30AM and follow thru on Monday. If sp spiked to 1155 after GDP watch out for opening gap up and sell off from profit taking. Before report, don't try to short.

If this 1136 is violated by 1 tick, another story..., this 1125 and 111x will be flashing again (less likely). Intra-day scalping: Trading range 1137~1147 or 1140~1150.

Update after 8:00AM - Stop 1144.50, scalping short side, target 1136-7 testing. Expected close 1139.50-1140.

[Result: Day high 1144.50, low 1135.50, closed 1140]

Attempt trade for 11/29/2001 Thursday <$>

Even though it is a potential reversal day (becuse our first target 1125 almost achieved), any buying (or short covering) could be premature before 7:45 AM, try to short one more time.

11:55PM Wed update: If 1134 is intact after midnight, trading range 1134-1127 before durable goods report. For reversal sign, 1138 must be broken first, otherwise next target 1124, then 1115 (potential spike only) before bounce attempt again. This 1122-25 is a strong support. Opening Update: Today will be a reversing day, target 1145-47 tomorrow

[Result: Opened 1131.50 then plunged to 1125 and started to reverse back up to 1144.50 close.]

Attempt trade for 11/28/2001 Wednesday <$>

Tuesday afternoon Update: Before 8:00PM: try use 52.5 stop scalp to 44.. if not achieved, then try after midnight but stop will be moved to 1156-7. (Conservative trader: wait for midnight only) Resistance 1157 area, still try to sell short for target 1144-1142 target and reverse to buy side.. for 1155 testing; if 1156 stalled again after reverseing.. try to short AGAIN. Morning opening gap down area 1146-1147.
9:38PM (Tue) update: 1125-1122 target is still valid before Thursday 7:45AM. Until then, don't try to buy (.. stocks).

After midnight, stop (for shorting) range will be 1152-1156. Violation or spike of this level does not indicate up side reversal, because we are just not in buying mood before Thursday!

Opening Update: Stop 1151, selling bias, target 1125-22 still valid.

[Result: High 1151, opened gap down at 1143, bounced to 1138 and plunged to 1128, closed @1129.50]

Attempt trade for 11/27/2001 Tuesday <$/!/>

If this 1158.75-1159 is intact at 00:01AM, try to scalp short side to 1151 with stop 1159. (Keep in mind, don't expect a target more than 10 points for scalping.) If this 1159 broken before midnight, wait reversal down after midnight. Don't try to scalp short at the low. If 1150 holds before 7:00AM, a rally to 1170 will be possible again followed by a pull back on Wednesday.

[Result: Globex high 1156.50, plunged to 1150.50, then plunged to 1141.50 before 7:30; bouced to 1164.50 and plunged to 1150.50 close]

Attempt trade for 11/26/2001 Monday <$>

Pull back scenario: Aggressive trade: Short scalp selling after mid-night. Stop 1159.75 for 1150-1 testing (watch out for reversal up).

Before mid-night, buy side support 1150, stop 1149.50, buying bias target 1157.75 - 1161; if 1150 holds at Globex, target will be 1170-73 followed by a 17-20 points pull back. Trading range 1160-1150, if 1150 holds, trading range 1150-1170.

[Result: Globex high 1158.50 (our stop 1159.75), plunged to 1146 and bounced to 1155.50 close]

Attempt trade for 11/24/2001 Friday <$/!>

stop 1142.50, selling bias at globex, target 1132-31. 1144 violation would take market to higher high.

Mid-day update: Stop 1148.50, scalp short to 1140 target.

[Result: Globex high 1141.50 and plunged to 1131 then bounced to 1153 close. 1148.50 stopped out 1 point.]

Attempt trade for 11/21/2001 Wednesday <$>

Major support 1135 for buy side. Before 8:00AM, trading range 1137.50~1144.50. If 1146 is broken before 8:00 AM PST, it could bounce to higher high (or 1158-62). If 1146 is intact at 8:00 MA, this 1136-35 will be tested before reversal up attempt after 10:00 AM. Gap down open at 1138 area is likely.
Aggressive trade (including globex): 1146 stop (risking 1 point), scalp short to 1141 and 1138.

Attempt trade for 11/20/2001 Tuesday <$>

keep in mind... 2 days up and 1 day consolidation. Trading range 1163/1158~1146/1143 (if broken, target 1140). If it opened gap down, try to scalp buy into 1162 and reverse to short. If gap up and spike to 1162 area, scalp short to 1146. Aggressive trade at Globex: stop 1153.50 (risk 1 points only), sclap to 1146-43.

11:10 AM Update: Stop 1152.50, short 1151.50, target testing day low 1144]

[Result: After our post, Globex plunged from 1152 to 1144.50 and opened 1149; afternoon plunged from 1152.50 to 1142]

Attempt trade for 11/19/2001 Monday <$>

Keep in mind short scalping is for correction, not for a down trend. Before sp breaking out 1152 there should be one more down swing to 1140, if broken, 1130, if broken,1125-20. For this scenario, this 1151 better be not violated before 7:00am Monday. Buy side: Stop 1135-6, scalp buying bias, target 1142-45 testing, if broken, 1148-50 again before reverse to short scalping.

Updated after housing report: Short side scalping: Stop 1151, target 1140, 1130, 1123. Mid-day update: Support 1140, market will bounce after 10:45am to test 1148-1150 again.

[Result: Market extended last friday buonce to 1150 at Globex and reversed to 1140.50 in the morning and bounced after 10:30 AM to 1143.50 close.]

Attempt trade for 11/16/2001 Friday <$> CPI report no better than expected

Market would spike to 1148+ at Globex. If you are still long from 1137-8, take 2/2 profit at 1148 and ready to scalp to short side. Resistance 1151-2 area, scalp short side after mid-night, target 1145, if broken, target 1138. Aggressive trade: Can use 1152 stop for short side scalping. Risk 1~2 pts. Conservative trade: Wait until market reverses from resistance. Don't forget to reverse back to buy side 1-2 hours after the opening.

Update before CPI report: Stop still 1152, selling bias, target 1140, if broken, target 1137, if broken, target 1133-32 and try to use 1130-31 as support to reverse to buy side.

[Result: Globex high 1151.50 and plunged to to day low 1130.50, close 1140]

Attempt trade for 11/15/2001 Thursday <$>

As we said before Wednesday close, market would spike up at Globex and it did spike to 1152.50 again (higher than we had expected).
Three important numbers for trading range: 1155-1145-1135

Resistance 1155, scalp short side, target 1145 support, if 1143.50 broken, target 1135 support . Aggressive trade: Can use 1153.75 stop for short side scalping. Risk 1.5 pts at most. Then reverse back to buy side fom support.

[Result: Market plunged from globex high 1152.50 to 1145-44 and 1143.50 broken; it plunged to our 1135 support and reversed back up to 1145.50 close as expected.]

Attempt trade for 11/14/2001 Wednesday <$>

Expected trading range 1148 - 1133. Buy low, sell high.

If retails sales report is worse than expected, market would open gap down at around 1133-34. Try to reverse back up after mid-day. If the report is neutral, try to scalp short side from range high.

[Result: Opened 1148.50, high 1150.50, low 1133.75, close 1143.50]

Attempt trade for 11/13/2001 Tuesday <$>

Up trend is intact. Monday's low 1095 became a new bottom. As long as 1113 holds at globex, it will test 1137, if broken, then 1145-1148 target.

Attempt trade for 11/12/2001 Monday <$>

UP trend major support 1195. Intra-day support 1116, resistance 1127. Trading range 1117-1127. Buy low, sell high. Globex resistance 1127, sclap short side. (If you have already shorted from 1126-27 at Globex, take 1/2 profit at 1123-24 and move 2/2 stop to 1126.50) If this 1117 holds at opening, last week high might be tested. If this 1116 is broken, it should test 1111-1107 before bounce right back up.

Update date after opening plunge: cover 2/2 below 1100, and ready to reverse to buy side for target 1120-25 testing; expected close 1118-1119.

[Result: globex high 1127, opened gap down 1107 as we mentioned on last Friday, plunged to our major support 1195.50, bounced up to 1123.50, closed 1117.50]

Attempt trade for 11/09/2001 Friday <$>

Market might test this 1129 or above before7:00 AM. Expected close 1120-1125. Dont try to short at globex below 1129.
Bounce and sell off scenario: We would like to short one more time from 1129-1133 area for target 1103-06 before Monday close (Our favour).

Aggressive trade: May try to scalp to target 1129+ at Globex and then reverse to short. If this 1129-33 is intact at globex... still we prefer to short for target 1103-06 before Monday close. (Conservative trade: Wait to short). Keep in mind: Market is most likely to open gap down, shorting after the open could be too late.

Morning Update before PPI Report: Stop 1127, selling bias before the opening, target 1108; expected close 1122-25.

[Result: Opened gap down and spiked to 1126 high and plunged to low 1111.50, close 1123.50]

Attempt trade for 11/08/2001 Thursday <$/!>

If 1023.25 is seen at Globex, stay out of short for the time being. If you are still short, and see this 1023.25 2nd time, then stay out of short.
If it opened gap up at 1023.25 area try to scalp short side one more time for 1116-1113 target testing (about 8-9 pts from opening high) with 1127 stop.
Aggressive: stop 1127-6 at globex for re-shorting
If first hour close (7:30AM) is above 1113, get ready to reverse back up after 8:30 AM for 1126-28 testing.

Attempt trade for 11/07/2001 Wednesday <$>

Aggressive trade: stop 1120.50, scalp short side to 1111-1113 first (includng globex). If sp opened gap up in the morning try to short for the first 30 minutes.
Try to reverse to up side again with caution. (Buying is risky now!!)

Reversal down (not confirmed yet) should be no earlier than 10:30AM. Since the down side bias is so ungent now, reversal could happen earlier than expected.

Morning Update: Gap down open, if 1113 holds for first hour, it will rally to 1127-30. Try to reverse to short after 10:30AM.

[Result: Globex high 1120.50, low 1108.50, open 1113.75, high 1128, market reversed after 10:30AM and plunged to 1113 and closed at 1119.50]

Attempt trade for 11/06/2001 Tuesday (FOMC rate cut 0.50) <$>

Support 1100, still buying bias, target 1113-1117 before pull back to 1098. There are a couple of scenarios. We will mention them after the open.

Opening Update: Support 1098 for buy side. If rate cut is less than 0.50, market would plunge to 1084 for gap filling otherwise sp01z should keep rallying to 1027-33 before weekend.

[Result: Day low 1096, day high 1121.50, close 1120]

Attempt trade for 11/05/2001 Monday <$>

Stick with buy side for a couple of days. Another topping for correction (at around 7th Wednesday) is near again.

Potential short side scalping must be quick. (from 1093 to 1084). Support 1082-3, target 1100-1103.

[Result: Day low 1088, high 1108.50, closed 1103.50]

Attempt trade for 11/02/2001 Friday <$>

Up trend is back on track again. support 73 (strong support is at 69-70 area), buying bias into FOMC meeting. (Buying bias with caution due to terrorist attack warning). If job report is bad, market will plunge to 1072.50-71.50 for sure, if broken, then 1067-65; worst (job report) case, all the way back to 1056.
Bearish scenario: (Without consideration of job report) Stop will be at 1082.5-83.5, selling bias, target 1072.5-71.50.

Bullish scenario: If job report is no worse than expected (NF payroll (-) 262,000 & 5.2%), it would open gap up at Thursday high.

Opening update: 1074-1072 support for buy side.

[Result: Payroll (-) 415,000, unemp rate 5.4%. SP plunged to 1075 and held and reversed back up to 1091.50, closed 1089.50]

Attempt trade for 11/01/2001 Thursday <$>

Trading range 1053-1065 (or wildcard 1072); try not to short at low.

Bounce scenario: If 1053 is intact, scalp buy low , testing 1064-5. If already shorted before Wednesday close, try to cover at least half before the opening.

Short scenario: 1065 area (wild card 1070+) for target 1054-3.

If flat, wait for the opening trade. If it opened gap up above 65... try to short again for 1054 target


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