trade for 03/28/2002 Thursday (Friday closed for Easter) <$>
trading range 1139-1147. Expected
close: Above 1142-43.
Update: Taget 1157 is valid before 8:00AM.
10:00 update: Bias for Monday would be
bearish. Target 1144 is valid before 7:00AM Monday. If
close at 1153-54 or 1148-49, market will open gap down at 1144.
Open 1148.50, High 1156.75, Low 1144.25, Closed 1144.75]
trade for 03/27/2002 Wednesday <$>
range before tomorrow 8:00 am: 1147 resistance ~ 1139-38 support.
high, cover low. Buy low, sell high.
this 1142.50 is broken, then try to short from 1146 area with
1147.25 stop for 1139-38 target and reverse
to buy with 37.75 stop, target 1147-9. (Our favorite).
to buy side or not depends on opening, because there are many
supports (1131, 1135, 1138) for reversal up.
update: Trading range either 1149~1135 or 1147~1137; expected
close 1147, 45, 43.
Open 1139.50, High 1149.25, Low 1136.75, Closed 1145.25]
trade for 03/26/2002 Tuesday <$>
should be for bounce (buy side). Timing
for reversal up should be no later than 8:30AM.
selling scenario: If
1142.50 is intact within 2 hours after the opening, watch out,
next target 1127 and 1122 before Wednesday. If it opens gap up,
aggressive traders can try to scalp short side before 7:00AM
Durable good report is not better than expected (1.0%), then
gap down open is possible. (Resistance/stop 1142.50-1140.50
update: Stop 1141.25, risk 1 point, scalp short, if stopped
out, it will hit 1147-49.
9:30 update: Day high should have be in. Stop 1147 area, market
should start to pull back at 10:15 for 1142 testing, if 1141
broken, day low 1134 will be tested.
high 1149.50, low 1144, closed 1142.50]
trade for 03/25/2002 Monday <$>
Update: Stop 1154, selling bias at 1153, target 1144.
10:00 Update: Stop 1140, buying at 1140.75, target 1145-6
Update: Stop 1144, reverse to short selling again at 1143.50,
target 1133 before close.
open 1151.25, bounced to 1153.25 high, plunged to 1140, bounced
to 1144.75, then plunged to 1133 low, closed 1135.50]
trade for 03/22/2002 Friday <$>
pivot 1161.00. If 1161 is broken, it will test 1170 again either
before close or Monday morning.
1148-1150, buying bias, target 1160 before 8:00AM. (This bias
to buy before the opening, cuz most likely it wouldl open gap
sp can not take out Thursday high 1158.50 before 7:30AM watch
out for DUMPING and get ready to reverse to short side again.
Update: Stop 1167.25, selling bias, target1157-8.
open 1153.50, low 1146.75, high 1159, close 1149.50]
trade for 03/21/2002 Thursday <$>
1160 (trailing stop), if it opens gap up, try to short one more
time for low testing 1151.50, if broken, next target 1147.50 (wildcard
spike 1144) before reversing to buy side (potential stop 1145.50).
it opens gap down, then there will be not enough left to short
globex high 1156, open 1152.50, low 1141, high 1158.50, close
trade for 03/20/2002 Wednesday <$>
stated before Tuesday close: If open at 1175-77 area, try to
scalp short one more time, target 1163 target is still valid.
trade: Try 1177.5 stop, short before the
opening. After midnight if this
1175.50 is intact, try to short with 1175.50 stop. After
shorting (target), try to reverse to buy side.
10:20 update: Stop 1164, risk 0.5 short 1163.50 target 1167-1166;
then use trailing stop.
After midnight 1175.50 is intact and stop 1175.50 worked. Open
1165, morning high 1165.50, low 1151.75, close 1152.25]
trade for 03/19/2002 Tuesday <$>
1164, buy side, target, testing 1175-76. if 1176 broken, next
target1182-84. If FOMC's bias is neutral or better, 1184 should
be hit before the close. Watch
out for reversal down (15+ points) to 1162-63 for testing.
open 1173, high 1177.50, low 1166.75, close 1174.25]
trade for 03/18/2002 Monday <$>
1163.50, buy side, target 1173-76. Dow will test 10640-60.
update: Today's trading range will be 1176-1156 or 1175-1155;
expected close 1166-1167.
open 1170.50, high 1175.75, low 1161, close 1167]
trade for 03/15/2002 Friday <$>
1159.50, scalp short side one more time before 7:00am for 53 testing....
1150 is still intact 7:30am, ready to reverse to buy side.
market can not take out 1163 within 2 days, watch out, it would
plunge to 1120 before March 27.
(Bullish scenario: should take out 1163 today)
report is not bad. Move stop to 1161.50-1162, wait for 6:30,
if this level still intact, try to scalp short side one more
scenario: should take out 1163 today)
open 1160.50, high 1169.75, low 1155.50, close 1167]
trade for 03/14/2002 Thursday <$>
Tuesday's low 1153.50, it will test 1162-63.
1163, try to scalp short side for 1.5 more days (of grinding).
Thursday is a bounce (choppy) day, watch out for a down Friday.
Update: Move stop to 1161, selling bias.
open 1157.50, high 1161, low 1153.50, close 1156]
trade for 03/13/2002 Wednesday <$>
scenario: Trading range 1166-1176/78. (1176/78 only if 1170.50
is violated and retail sales report is good).
pull back scenario: Resistance 1170.25, trading range 1170~1155
if 1170.50 is intact and open gap down more than 3 pts. (If
report is not good as expected, possible gap down open at 1163.
Globex high 1174, Open gap down at 1163, high 1165, low 1153.50,
trade for 03/12/2002 Tuesday <$>
Closing below 1170 triggerred the possible gap down open again.
Keep in mind, shorting is against trend so far.
range 1173-1166. Stop 1172.75, scalp to 1166, if broken, next
target 1162, if broken, next 1153. If 1166 holds into mid-night,
short side better watch out.
Market plunged to 1163.50 at globex. Gap down open is invevitable.
If it opened below 1166, try to short again with 1070.25 stop
at 1169.50 gap filling, target 1161, if 60 broken, next target
58 before 8:00, if 58 is broken, next target 1154; then try to
reverse to buy side.
it has hard timing breaking 1160, watch out for shorting covering.
Gap down open 1157.50, High 1070, Low 1156.50, close 1169.25]
trade for 03/11/2002 Monday <$/!>
1169, scalp short side, target 1163, if 1160 broken, next target
1154-52 testing before 7:00AM Tuesday. Expected close 1167.50-1168.50
Globex high 1169.50, day low 1162.75, high 1176.50, close 1169]
trade for 03/08/2002 Friday <$>
trading range day. Two scenarios:
job report is good, possible trading range high 1175 then plunge
to test Thursday low 1152-54.
job report is not as expected, trading range high 1169.50, low
1152.50, max 1148.
Trading range as wide as 1175-1148, as narrow as 1169.50-1154.50.
Short high, buy low; buy low, sell high. Median: 1161-1162
1147 is broken, 1137 will be next target on Monday. (1147 should
hold unless job report is ugly)
after report: Scalp short side target 1162-64.
After better than expected job report sp rallied to high 1174.50,
then plunged to low 1162.25, closed 1167]
trade for 03/07/2002 Thursday <$>
contract will be Traded today. New symbols: ES02M (emini), SP02M
support 1154-52, still up trend.
day correction is expected. Trading range 1172-1155.
to contract rollover, market could be volatile within frist
30 mins. Let's see where it would open at to get a stop level.
Update: 1172 stop, selling bias, today would be a down day.
Open 1171, High 1171.50, Low 1152.75, Close 1162]
trade for 03/06/2002 Wednesday <!>
9:00 am, resistance 1150.50, scalp short side, next target 1140-1137.
For this scenario, sp can not open above 1150.
Open 1146.50, High 1166.50, Low 1145.50, Close 1162.5.50]
trade for 03/05/2002 Tuesday <$/!>
are expecting a profit taking selling.
1154-1145. If 1144 is violated, next target 1135.
1155, selling bias, first target 1145-46. This 1145 might not
be broken easily on the first of of correction.
Open 1148.75, High 1158.50, Low 1144, Close 1149.50]
trade for 03/04/2002 Monday <$/!>
buying bias. Stop
1127, buying bias, target 1150-53 before/on Wednesday.
Jones target: 10500-10600
Update: Support 1130-11, buying bias, target 1148-1150.
Globex high 1140, low 1130, Open 1134.75, high 1154.75, low
1131.50, close 1152.25]
trade for 03/01/2002 Friday <$/!>
1100~1120 +/- 2 pts will be one more time. Buy
low, sell high. Short high, cover low.
(+/- 2 pts) is the support for buying bias. This support level
should be hit before 7:30AM, Short scalp to this 1102-1098
area then reverse to buy side.
+/- 2 pts is the resistance for short side.
Update: Stop 1121.50, buying bias, target 1131-33
Open 1114, low 1113.50, afternoon pull back low 1122.75, rallied
to high 1133.50, close 1132.50]
Trend: <02/26 Tue>
1100 has been intact for 2 days, target 1154 is valid within 2.5
weeks. If 1100 is broken on daily close basis, then another story.
Stay buy on buy side. Even if 1100 is broken
then up trend will start over again from 107x to 1155.
As of today, Dow Jones/Nasdaq are back to prior year 1998 relationship,
but sp is lagging behind for about 150~200 points. So, as we said
before, we don't think we would see last year's SP low again in
year 2002 even year 2003! This weekend's
close could indicate next week as a big down week or big up week
(1140 testing, and 115x the week after).
By looking at sp alone, it looks like 115x should be hit within
2.5 weeks; but Dow is too high. Step by step.