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( $ = Proven right direction. ! = 1 point stopped out. SP = sp500 future, NQ = Nasdaq futures.) 

The 4th Year of Accuracy - Daily Market Direction Bulletin
Before trying ours, please try others first!

April 2002

WEEKLY FREE TRIAL: every Wednesday

USER CODE: sp500, PASSWORD: guru

Attempt trade for 04/30/2002 Tuesday <$>

Trading range: 1064~1074.
Short high, buy low; or buy low sell high.

Watch out for month end. window-dressing behavior -- up side.

Opening update: If 1173.75 is broken, then market will reverse up for next target 1083....

Afternoon update: Market will test 1076-75 before 12:30pm

[Result: Open 1067.75, high 1083.50, low 1063.75, close 1076.75; 1073.754 broken and it hit 1073, market did plunge to test 1076-75 afternoon.]

Attempt trade for 04/29/2002 Monday <$$ >

Resistance 1079-80 pivot (stop for short). Should flush from 1078 to 1058 or 1080 to 1060. Flush should happen on Monday, short first and buy. If this scenario is right ... round trip 35-40 points.

No flush scenario: If 1080 is violated before 7:00, then 20 points bounce is possible.

[Result: Morning trades stopped out twice breakeven (or 1 point), afternoon shorted first from 1075.5 with 1 point risk and 2nd short from 1073.75 with 1074.75 stop, took profit MOC 1065.]

Attempt trade for 04/26/2002 Friday <$$>

<04/11/2001 Thursday> There are a lot of analysts talking about (Fib #) 1150, 1155, etc, etc. Not that easy! They come up with all kind of numbers but never know where to risk 1 point. Just ignore them and trade step by step.

Resistance is 1098-1100. Support 1085 (spike 1080)
Without report, the trading range should be 1100-1080.

Depends on GDP report. If GDP report is bad, 1080.50 will be hit before 7:50AM. If GDP report is bad and opening is at 1093 area, then 1098 should be resistance for short.

Opening update: Just short 1097+ with 1098 stop and use trailing ...; 1085 vilation will trigger 1080 target, 1077 violation will trigger target 1070.

[Result: Open 1095.25, High 1097.25, low 1070.25, closed 1071.25; we shorted from opening 1097 with 1098 stop, took profit at 1081-2; shorted again 1087.25 with 1 point risk, took profit at 1080-78; shorted again at 1079.25 with 1081 stop and trailing to MOC profit taking at 1071.25.]

Attempt trade for 04/25/2002 Thurday <!/$>

<04/23 Tue> So far 1120 is void for the time being. This 1095, 1085 are still valid on our map before End of Thursday.

Next target 1085 has not been ruled out yet (should be hit before 9:00 AM Friday.

GDP report is due on Friday. Before this report, trading range should be 1091~1101. Don't try to short at low and buy at high.

Resistance 1102. If opening range is at 1099-1101 area, try to scalp short again.

[Result: High 1095, Open 1089, low 1083.75, closed 1093]

Attempt trade for 04/24/2002 Wednesday <$$>

<04/23 Tue> So far 1120 is void for the time being. This 1095, 1085 are still valid on our map before End of Thursday. Bad reports could make it happen earlier than expected. Trading range 1115~1095, 1085 for the rest of the week, unless daily close 1115 two days in a row. Better day trade.

Anyone bought at 1100-1101 area before Tuesday close, try to take profit at 1106-07 before the gov report at 5:30AM

Before reports: Trading range: Support/stop 1100-1101, resistance 1108.
If report is good, it would test 1113-1114 before 7:30AM.
If report is neutral, 1100-1101 should be tested one more time before testing yesterady's high 1113+.

If the report is bad and 1108.50 is intact by 7:30, watch out for 1090 target (with 1108.50 stop) before Wednesday close.

[Result: Globex high 1109.50, Open 1104.50, high 1108.50, low 1091.50, closed 1092.75]

Attempt trade for 04/23/2002 Tuesday <!/$>

Support/stop 1107, buy side for bounce.Resistance/pivot 1113~1113.50. Violation of 1113.50 would point to next target (pivot) 1120-21. If 1106 is violated, 1100 will be broken.

After 11:00 AM update: Stop 1111, selling bias, target 1102 before report. Before gov report, this 1100 is still valid.

[Result: Globex high 1113.75, Open 1109, high 1112.50, low 1099.25, closed 1103.25]

Attempt trade for 04/22/2002 Monday <$$$$>

As we said before Friday close, if it is a gap down open, should be at 1122 area.

Resistance (stop) 1130.75, short side bias.

Our target for last Friday 1122 is still valid before 7:30.
If 1120 is broken then target 1113 before 8:30-9:00AM

Bounce timing for 1131 testing should be after 8:30.

Opening update: Aggresive trade, reverse to buy with stop 1120 risking 1 point, 1113.25 target. If 1120 is broken, more selling bias, reverse to short again, target 1111.75.

After 9:00AM update: Stop 1113.50, selling bias, one more short to 1107-1106 target.

[Result: Globex high 1128, open 1122.50, low 1106, close 1108.25. Reversed short to buy and stopped out with 1 pt; reversed to short again at 1112.50-1112.75 with 1113.50, covered 1107.]

Attempt trade for 04/19/2002 Friday <$>

Today's bounce failed again (behind schedule). Only one (last chance) day left for this week. Weekend close 1123 area = neutral.
We have Three scenarios:
(1) 1123-24.75 resistance, target 1114.
(2) 1126-27 resistance, target 1114, (then 1107).
(3) 1130.50 resistance, target 1114, 1110.
Timing for reversal up should be after 8:30AM.
Opening is crucial.
If opens at 1125-27, could plunge immediately to 1114-5.
If opens at 1122, then a little tough, cuz it is neutral area.
If opens gap down at 1114-5, then short side would be gone; so can try to scalp buy. Let's see how it would behave at opening.

Afternoon Update: Moday would be still bearish. Possible black Monday

[Result: Open 1130.25, high 1132.75, low 1123.25 (globex low 1116.50), closed 1126.75. Globex we stopped out with 2 points. Day session, we shorted from 1129 higher, and added 1130.25 short, took profit at 1124; shorted again 1127.25 with 1127.75 stop, took profit 1124-25; shorted again 1126.75 with 1127.5 stop, took profit 1124.50-1125; shorted again 1126.75 and exited breakeven.]

Attempt trade for 04/18/2002 Thursday <$$>

Support (stop) 1123-24, buying bias. This 1124-25 level should be tested before 7:30.
If pivot 1130.75 is broken, it will test 1135, if broken, it will test 1140.
If it opens below 1130 and 1130.75 is intact for 5-10 mins, it should test 1125-26 before reverse back up again (for pivot 1130.75).
For aggressive trade: Stop 1130.75, for scalping to 1125 only.

For bullish scenario, Yesterday's high 1135 area needs to be violated before 10:00AM.

Update after opening: Stop 1130.75 pivot violated again, selling bias, target 1115-6. Then 1123.75 stop, short 1122.5 again, target 1112-3.

Afternoon Update: Stop 1123, buy 1123.75, target 1127-27.50.

If closed below 1124.75, it would be bearish tomorrorw morning

[Result: High 1132.75, Open 1127.50, high 1132.50, low 1108.75, closed 1123. We shorted from 1128.50, took profit at 1118; shorted again 1122.50 with 1123.75 stop, took profit 1112-13; shorted again 1124, exited breakeven; bought 1123.75 with 1123 stop, took profit ta 1127+]

Attempt trade for 04/17/2002 Wednesday <$>

Day trade. Dow Jone 10340 resistance before 7:30. Trading range 1135-1125 or 1134-1124. Keep in mind...if opening has a strong momentum, market may not pull back to that low (1124-25).
As long as 1123 is intact (or closed above 1123), more up side following, next target 1140-1144. If 1123 support failed, another story.

Before 7:30, aggressive trader: can try to scalp short side to target 1123-25 then reverse to buy.

AM 9:00 update: Stop 1130.75, selling bias again, target 1123-24 still valid.

[Result: Globex high 1125.75, Open 11331.50, high 1134.50, low 1123.75, closed 1128. Short high-buy low trading range worked.]

Attempt trade for 04/16/2001 Tuesday <!/$>

Resistance 1114, support 1110. Trading range either 1104-1114 or 1100-1110. Short high, buy low. Buy low, short high.

If CPI is better than expected, this 1115-17 testing would be feasible again; if 1117 is broken, next target 1122.

Opening Update: CPI is better than expected. 1114 violaton indicating more up side.

AM 9:00 Update: Stop 1123 risking less than 1 point, buying bias, target 1129-1132.

[Result: Opened gap up at 1114.25, high 1131.50, low 1114, closed 1130. ]

Attempt trade for 04/15/2001 Monday <!/$>

Support 1108 area, buying bias for bounce, target 1117, if broken, next target 1122-23 area, if broken, next target 1127-30.

Morning Update: If 1106-7 is broken, market will be bearish. Once it turns to bearish, stop will be 1110.25, short side for target 1100 testing.

[Result: Opened gap up at 1115, high 1116.75, low 1110, closed 1114.25. ]

Attempt trade for 04/12/2001 Friday <$>

We are expecting a plunge to test 1100-02 after PPI report then bounce to 7:00am for retail sales and consumer sentiment reports.
Bearish scenario: If 7:00am reports are not good as expected, market should plunge to break below 1100; and bottom should be at 1095-1090 before reversal up at around 8:30~9:00 for 15-25 pts bounce to 1115 area.
Bullish Scenario: If reports are neutral, 1100 should be support for the time being and bounce to 1114-1116 is expected.
As long as the reports are not ugly, market will reverse up today. No matter where the low would be, the bounce should be about 20 points.

Day trading: If open gap up at 1108-1111 area, try to scalp short again to 1112 with 1112.50 stop. Short side be careful. 9:00am is a timing for reversal up.

[Result: High before the PPI report 1112, open 1108.50, low 1103.70, high 1114.50, close 1112. Market plunged to 1103.75 and reversed back up as expected at around 8:45AM]

Attempt trade for 04/11/2001 Thursday <$$$>

There are a lot of analysts talking about (Fib #) 1150, 1155, etc, etc. Not that easy! They come up with all kind of numbers but never know where to risk 1 point. Just ignore them and trade step by step.

Bullish scenario: Support 1126-67, buying bias, target 1136, then 1142 before 10:30; after mid-night if 1130 is intact, stop will be moved higher.

Bearish scenario: If market can not take out 1135 (or even not 1133.5 at globex) or stay above it within 1st hour after the opening, watch out, it would be back down again to test 1124-25. If this 1135 is still intact at 10:30AM, this 1123 would be broken again....

Morning Update: If 1126 is violated, wildcard target 1110. Resistance 1128.25 area, selling bais from 1127.50, target 1115-14. if

AM 09:00 Update: Use 1117.75 trailing stop, short again, target 1110-1108.

AM 11:00 Update: Stop 1113.25, short again, target 1105.50 or 03.50.

PM 12:08 Update: Stop 1110, short again from 1109.50, target 1104-03.

[Result: Globex high 1133, open 1127.50, low 1103.25, closed 1104. Globex buy, 1 pt stopped out. Opening shorted from 1127.5 & 1125.75; after 9:45 shorted again; after 11:00 shorted again with 1113.25 stop and 1123.75 stopped out; after stopped out, entered again 1111; after 12:08, stop 1110, short from 1109.50 again. 1103-4 take all profit at 12:28-12:30. Huge profitable day.]

Attempt trade for 04/10/2001 Wednsday <$>

Major resistance 1127(trailing for short side from Tuesday), aggressive stop 1125.25, short side, next target 1114-13 testing. (If it opens gap up, try to scalp short side again.)
Whether or not this 1110 would be broken by 1-2 points depends on first one hour behavior.

Once support is found, it will start to bounce again.

Opening Update: Take 1/2 profit at 1120 and trailing 2/2 with 1124.50. If 1124.50 is violation, it would reverse up side.

AM 9:00 update: Stop 1127.50-1128, scalp to 1121, if day low 1119 broken then 1117 target. If day low 1119 holds 10:00-10:30, it will reverse back up. As long as it closed above 1123.50 or 1127, it would be bullish tomorrow.

[Result: Globex high 1124.25, open 1120, high 1133.50, low 1119, close 1132.25]

Attempt trade for 04/09/2001 Tuesday <$>

Support (trailing stop) 1123.50, buying bias, next target 1135-37 (resistance) before a profit taking sell off. Don't try to buy high and sell low. Don't dream market will fly like crazy.
If any high made before 10:00am is still intact at around 9:00-10:00, a profit taking sell off is expected and this 1125 will be tested... if broken then 1120-1118... if broken then 1110 double bottom testing.
If this 1115 broken or it opens at 1125-26 (likely), sell off after 10:00 will be more likely.

Before the opening, aggressive trade: can place limit sell at globex 1135-37.

Opening Update: Stop 1131.50, selling bias at 1129.50, target 1121.75-1119.75; then start to use trailing.

[Result: Open 1130.25, high 1130.25, plunged to 1117.75, close 1120.50]

Attempt trade for 04/08/2001 Monday <$>

This week: Bounce and try to test Dow 10340, Nasdaq 1865, and SP02M 113x before end of Wednesday.

Resistance 1127.50-28.50, selling bias, next target 1113, then 1107.

1107 target depends on the bounce from 1113.50 area. If the bounce is like a dead cat, it means lower target is possible after 10:00AM.

Summary: Bouncing level should either 1113.50 or 1107.

Opening Update: Cover short at 1110-1113 and trailing 1118.50. If 1118.50 is violated... then ready reverse to buy side.

AM 9:45 Update: Stop 1117.75, buying bias from 1119-1120, target 1116+ then start to use trailing stop.

[Result: Globex high 1127.25, open 1112, low 1110, high 1128.75, close 1127.50]

Attempt trade for 04/05/2002 Friday <$>

Bad Job report scenario: If this 1127-28 resistance is intact before job report, next target 1109 after 1120 violation. Gampling trade for bad job report: stop 1130.50, after job report, stop 1127.75

Good Job report scenario: If 1130.50 is broken after good job report, then next shorting area is 1137 area. Gambling Trade for good job report: stop 1123, scalp buy side, target 1130.50, 1132.50.

Opening Update: If there is no more follow-thru after 8:00, it will reverse back down.

[Resupt: Open 1130.50, High 1135, Low 1120.50, Closed 1125.50]

Attempt trade for 04/04/2001 Thursday <$>

Weekly target 1121 achieved so far, but don't try to "guess" the down trend is over.
Resistance 1138.75 area. Without daily closing above this level 2 days in a row, SP has more down side to go.
Trading range: 1125-1135 or 1137-1123

Before the opening try to short from 1135.75-1137.50 (in case it spikes up to 1136-7 and opens flat).

AM 9:30 Update: Aggressive stop 1130.50, 1122 testing is valid. expected close 1124.50-1125.50

[Resupt: Open 1123.75, High 1132.75, Low 1121, Closed 1125.50]

Attempt trade for 04/03/2001 Wednesday <$>

One day bounce is expected, but trading range before 7:30 AM should be 1141~1133. Short high. Buy low.

For buy side: Support 1133, target testing 1142; for more up side, it needs to take 1142.50 out.

For short side: Stop 1142-42.50, target 1135.50~1133 before 7:30AM only. After this time frame, short side will be riskier.

AM 6:22 Update: Stop 1132.25, selling bias, target 1134-1133.

AM 10:20 Update: Ready to short again at 1132.50, stop 1133.25, target 1122-20. (after 10:30 high 1133, market plunged to 1120.75)

PM 12:45 Update: Stop 1119, buy side target 1132 testing.

[Resupt: Globex high 1141.25, Open 1138.75, High 1141.25, Low 1120.75, Closed 1130.25]

<03/31 Sun> As we stated at 10:30AM last Thursday, Monday's bias would be bearish, 1144 would be valid before 7:00AM and could open gap down at 1144. Apparently, this target has been achieved. For this week, day trade step by step. SP should test 1133 and 1121 in this week.

Attempt trade for 04/02/2002 Tuesday <$>

Trading range 1150-1140. Expected close 1150.
If 1139 is broken, it will test 1133-34.
If 1132.50 is broken, it will test 1122.

(If anyone have shorted before Monday close above 1145.50, at Globex take 1/2 profit at 1143.50 and move 2/2 trailing to 1145.50)

Opening update: We have no buying mood. Resistance 1142.5-43, stick with short side.

Afternoon Udate: Stop 1143, selling bias, target 1131 still valid.

[Resupt: Globex high 1145, Open 1138.75, High 1143.25, Low 1137, Closed 1138.50]

Attempt trade for 04/01/2002 Monday <$>

Trailing stop for short side is 1147 now.

SP should test 1133 and 1121 in this week.

Opening Update: Stop 1142.50, selling bias, target 1134. Afternoon, if 1141.25 is broken, it will test 1147-48.

[Resupt: Open 1141.50, High 1150, Low 1143.25, Closed 1144.75]

Attempt trade for 03/28/2002 Thursday (Friday closed for Easter) <$>
Expected trading range 1139-1147. Expected close: Above 1142-43.

Opening Update: Taget 1157 is valid before 8:00AM.

AM 10:00 update: Bias for Monday would be bearish. Target 1144 is valid before 7:00AM Monday. If close at 1153-54 or 1148-49, market will open gap down at 1144.

[Resupt: Open 1148.50, High 1156.75, Low 1144.25, Closed 1144.75]

Attempt trade for 03/27/2002 Wednesday <$>

Trading range before tomorrow 8:00 am: 1147 resistance ~ 1139-38 support. Short high, cover low. Buy low, sell high.
If this 1142.50 is broken, then try to short from 1146 area with 1147.25 stop for 1139-38 target and reverse to buy with 37.75 stop, target 1147-9. (Our favorite).

Reversing to buy side or not depends on opening, because there are many supports (1131, 1135, 1138) for reversal up.

Opening update: Trading range either 1149~1135 or 1147~1137; expected close 1147, 45, 43.

[Resupt: Open 1139.50, High 1149.25, Low 1136.75, Closed 1145.25]

 


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