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(1) The following attempt trade comments are at least 10 hours delayed. (2) Part of the following comments were posted in Pro-WarRoom. (3) Our attempt trades for tomorrow are available to subscribers only. (4) The record should NOT be construed as offering investment advice. (5) Past performance is not necessarily an indication of future performance. (6) There is risk of loss in trading futures and options. (7) All time PST. 

( $ = Proven right direction. ! = 1 point stopped out. SP = sp500 future, NQ = Nasdaq futures.) 

The 4th Year of Accuracy - Daily Market Direction Bulletin
Before trying ours, please try others first!

May 2002

FREE TRIAL: Every Wednesday

USER CODE: sp500, PASSWORD: guru

Attempt trade for 05/31/2002 Friday <!/$>

Before report, 1063.75 stop buying bias, target 1070. Buy side better take some profit before econ reports.

Keep in mind: DON'T dream that market would fly like a rocket. Huge resistance 1082 area before Monday. If reports are good and Thursday's (yesterday) high 1070.50 is broken and 1073 broken, market would test 1080 area before first 2 hours of Monday.

For the above bounce scenario, if market gets stalled at 1080-2 area, watch out for x0-x5 points plunge before next weekend, (as early as before Wednesday.

If market can not even break 1071 (resistance/stop) after reports, it will plunge immediately to 1059.

For bearish scenario, expected close should be below 1065.

[Result: High 1080.5, low 1063.75, close 1064/1067.5)

Attempt trade for 05/30/2002 Thursday <!/$>

Support 1066.75, ready to buy one day bounce before 7:30, target, as we stated on Wednesday, 20 points buonce.
This 1074.50 is the pivot and resistance. Violation of 1075.50 will confirm 1085.50

If it opened above 1073 and below 1074.50, then there might be a quick short scalp before bouncing.

Opening Update: Too bad it did not open between 1073-74, otherwise we would have caught this quick short. Now 1060 area support, buying bias, target 1070, 1074,.... If 1064 is violation, target 1070 will be confirmed.

Comment after 1066.75 violation and bounced to 1068.50: Stop 1070.25, selling bias at 1068.75, target 1059-60 testing. Support 1054.

[Result: Open 1062, down to 1059.50, bounced to 1071, plunged to 1054.25 day low, bounced to 1066 close. At opening, we bought 1060.50, stopped out 1059.75, bought again 1060.50, made 8~10 points proift. We missed the short side by 1.5 points. Also bought IBM up 2.2]

Attempt trade for 05/29/2002 Wednesday <!/$>

There should be one more short scalping for 10 points target 1067-69 before another bounce attempt.
Resistance 1080, target 1067-69 testing, then followed by 1063 if 1067 is broken.
Aggressive trade: Stop 1080, risk 1 point on short side scalping.

Expected timing for bounce 8:00AM PST.

[Result: High 1077.50, low 1066.75, close 1068.50]

Attempt trade for 05/28/2002 Tueday Monday holiday <$$>

If this 1080 support holds on Tuesday morning first 2 hours, still it would try to rally again. Stop1081 for buy side. Violation of 1091 will trigger 1100 testing again. Without bomb threat news, market should hold!

If reports are bad and 1090 is intact, 1070 testing will be triggered.

Update after the report: First trade, 1084 stop, selling bias for 1076 testing; 2nd trade, stop 1079.50, short at 1078.75, target 1070.

[Result: Globex high 1090, open 1083.50, low 1070.50, close 1076.50. We missed first short due to fast market; we shorted the 2nd one from 1078.75 with 1079.50 stop and took profit at 1070-72 area.]

Attempt trade for 05/27/2002 Monday (Closed for Memorial Holiday)

Attempt trade for 05/24/2002 Friday <$$> GDP worse than expected

Bullish scenario: Support 1092 area, buying bias, if GDP report is good, it will open gap up above 1100+(most likely 1105 area).

Bearish (correction one more time to 1080) Scenario: Only if GDP is bad and there is some bomb threat news again, it will test 1080 area.

Update after report: Stop 1096.50 and 1097.75, selling bias, target 1090-92.

Mid-day Updatae: Stop 1096.75, buy 1097.50, scalp 3-4 pts profit.

Afternoon Update: Stop 1090.50, selling bias, target 1081.

[Result: Globex high 1101, bad GDP report, open 1095.50, high 1097.50, low 1082, close 1082.50]

Attempt trade for 05/23/2002 Thursday <$/!> Durable Good Report

Support 1081.50, resistance 1086.75. Two scenarios:
Bearish side: Resistance still 1086.75. If this 1086.75 is intact after report, still selling bias.

Bullish side: (Our favor w/o any circumstances) Support 1082-1081 area. If this support 1082 (1081.50 stop for buy side including globex) holds after midnight before the Durable Good report, it will be for buying bias, target 1092, then 1101 before weekend (GDP report). This scenario will work if report is not bad and no more news about bomb attack for one day.

[Result: Globex low 1081.50, open 1084, high 1099.50, low 1080.50, close 1096.50

Attempt trade for 05/22/2002 Wednesday <$>

Bias is buying if 1086.25 is violated (without circumstance of stupid terrorism). If this 1086.25 is intact before 8:00am, another story!
Use Tuesday low as support. Stop 1080.50, buy side.

Don't be aggressive with short again! Pivot 1086.25 violation will trigger reversal up, target 1090-1092 pivot. If this 1086.25 is intact before 8:00am, another story!

Opening Update: This 1086.25 is intact and it opened weaker than expected, try to short today with 1086.75 stop.

Update after 10:30: Stop 1082.75, selling bias from 1081.50, target 1074.

[Result: Globex high 1085.50, open 107.25, high 1086.75, low 1075.50, closed 1085. We made 3 trades, one stopped out with 1 point, net profit more than 10 pts.]

Attempt trade for 05/21/2002 Tuesday <!$$>

Resistance 1096.50 for short side scalping; BUT, If it opened gap up above 1098.50 (to our Monday afternoon stop for short), try to short again for 1092 target testing.

If 1090 remains intact for 1.5 hours (by 8:00am), then consider a scalping buying.

Yes, buy side 1090-91 is tempting, but this terrorism stuff is really bothering!!

Opening Update: Resistance either 1100.75 or 1098.75, target 1090. Stop 1098.75, selling bias at 1097.75, target 1094.

Update at 7:10: Stop 1098.75, still selling bias, short again with 1 point risk, target 1090

Update at 10:15: Wait for 30 mins, stop 1089.50, still selling bias, target 1080.

Final trade: Stop 1085.75, short at 1085, target 1079.

[Result: Open 1097.25, high 1100.75, low 1079.25, closed 1083. We shorted 1097.75-1098, stopped out at 1098.75; shorted at 1098.75 again with 1099.75 stop after high 1100.75, took profit at 1094; shorted again 1097.75 with 1098.75 stop, took profit at 1088; shorted again from 1091stop, took profit at 1087-86; shorted again 1088.50 with 1089.5 stop, took profit at 1084-81; shorted again 1083 with 1083.75 stop, took profit 1080 or 1081.25 trailing profit taking; final trade, 1080.75 short and stopped out 1081.50.]

- Testimonials 05/21/2002 -

[10:20:18] - k76 - Unbelievable call for aggressive buy at 86, Guru. Low is 86.25... [10:20:49] - a36 - k76..i have been here 5 years...he's unbelievable EVERY day...trust me

[10:21:29] - k76 - Yep - as I mentioned last night, I trawled through the last 119 calls, and 114 or 115 had profits > 1 point

[10:21:34] - k02 - his head swelling under the turban

[10:22:12] - k76 - That is a STUPENDOUS record.

[10:22:15] - a36 - s33 and I have been here the longest...we KNOW the power of guru

[10:22:16] - k02 - yes

[10:23:00] - k02 - shows power of focusing on one mkt and becoming absolute expert in it

[10:23:25] - a36 - no one can touch him

[10:23:48] - k76 - Agreed, k02... although the Turtles shopwed the power of diversifying and knowning NOTHING baout your market!! (but the drawdown would kill most accounts!)

Attempt trade for 05/20/2002 Monday <$/!/$>

Remember? we said there should be one more pull back before this coming Friday's GDP report. Testing of 1080 pivot has not been total ruled out, but sp needs to break the following pivots before 1080 testing: 1100.75, 1096.50, 1092, 1087.50.

If it opened gap down below 1100.75, watch out for a down day. If it opened gap down below 1100.75, it would be selling bias. Once 1100.75 is violated, 1104.50 will be the resistance for shorting, target 1189-90. FBI's warning about attack should affect market today.

Afternoon Update: stop 1098.50, short 1097.5, target 1091.

[Result: Globex high 1106.75, open 1102.50, high 1103.50, low 1090.50, close 1093.75; stop 1099, buy 1099.75, stopped out 0.75; stop 1100.75, we reversed to short at 1099.75, took profit 1094 and 1091; shorted again 1095.5, stopped out 1 point; shorted again 1097 with 1098 stop, took profit at 1091-90.]

Attempt trade for 05/17/2002 Friday <$>

Little correction is over. Up trend is intact. As we stated in WarRooms, once it goes above 1100, we may not see 1080 again. As said on Mrch 13, a 100 points from May low. Stop 1100-1, buying bias, next target 1114, 1120, today the earliest, or before next Monday close.

Opening update: Opening is not strong enough, try to scalp short a little bit then reverse to scalp buy side later.

[Result: High 1108.75, low 1097, close 1105.25.]

Attempt trade for 05/16/2002 Thursday <$/!>

Resistance either at 1100.50 or at 1098.50 area, testing 1085 is still valid. If 85 broken, it could trigger 1076.
Waiting for report. Wednesday's trading range may repeat one more time.

If this 1089 is still intact by 7:40, then it could go back up again.

[Result: Open 1093, high 1100.50, low 1089.75, closed 1099.50]

Attempt trade for 05/15/2002 Wednesday <$>

Resistance 1100, support 1080. Waiting for CPI and inventory reports.

Update after reports: Stop 1100.50, scalp short side, target 1086-5 testing.

[Result: After report, sp plunged from 1097.50 to 1091, opened 1091.50, low 1089, high 1105.50, close 1094.50; we shorted from 1096.50 took profit at 1092-90; shorted again 1096.25 stopped out 1 point; long from 1100.50, took profit 1104; shorted again at 1096.25 with 1097.50 stop, took profit at 1093-90. Also hedged stocks.]

Attempt trade for 05/14/2002 Tuesday <$>

Nasdaq would go test 1720 as dow would test 10330. SP Resistance 1080, support 1072. Let's see how market would behave after retail sales report. Good report will make sp open gap up above 1080.

Opening Update: Stop 1086 risking less than 1 point, buy 1086.50-1086.75, target possible 1099 close.

[Result: Low 1074.50 before retail sales report, opened 1093 and plunged to 1086.25, high 1099.50, close 1098.25]

Attempt trade for 05/13/2002 Monday <$!>

Monday morning sp should be weak, because it should test last week low 1046-1050 before reversing back up.

Resistance 1060-61 area, if it opens above 1058, try to scalp short one more time for target 1046 before reversing to buy side. Target 1080 before weekend.

[Result: Open 1059, high 1076, low 1053.50, close 1075.50.]

Attempt trade for 05/10/2002 Friday <$!$>

Market should keep consoldating for a couple of more days. This 1060 is valid anytime before 7:45 next Tuesday Morning.

Estimated: Producer Price Index(Apr, 2002) 5:30 AM PST Apr, 2002; PPI 0.5; PPI less food & energy 0.10. Let's see how PPI would affect market. If it is a lot worse than expectd, next target 1060 after 1066.75 violation. If it is a good report, it will test 1084.

PPI report is better than expected. This 1087 testing is valid. Pivot resistance is 1080.50 At the opening, if 1080.50-1080.75 is intact, agg trade can try scalp short side and reverse to long.

Update after PPI: Resistance 1080.50, scalp short side, target 1073; then try to scalp buy side with 1072 stop risking 1 point. If 1072 broken, don't buy again, cause market could reverse down for target 1060.

Mid-day update: Stop 1063.75, selling bias, target 1052.75 MOC before close.

[Result: Open 1077, high 1079.50, low 1052.50, closed 1054]

Attempt trade for 05/09/2002 Thursday <$!$>

One day conslidation - a day that will drive traders nuts.

Resistance 1090 target 1078-80.

Opening Update: If any one has shorted at globex, take 1/2 profit at 1083; if has not shorted, stop 1087.50 stop, short 1086.-1087 area, target 1077-78.

Mid-day update: Try to short again with stop 1083.50, target 1075-74 target.

[Result: Globex high 1090, open 1083, day high 1086.50, low 1072.25, close 1074.50; we shorted 1086 (some members shorted at 1089 at globex), took profit 1078, shorted again 1078.50, stopped out 1 point, shorted again 1081.5-83, took 1/2 profit at 1079 and 2/2 either covered at 1074-5 or with trailing.]

Attempt trade for 05/08/2002 Wednesday <$$>

sp opened gap up at globex 1052 and bonced to 1055 when afterhour market closed. This 1070-72 is valid now. Looks like we are going to chase buy side to 1070 area if it opened above 1059.75 pivot.

1055 support for buy side.

Update 10 minutes before the opening: Buy buy buy IBM, QCOM, PXLW, NOK. IBM target 82. (IBM achieved 82). One way up. Dow will be up 300 pts.

[Result: Globex low 1051, open 1066, high 1090, low 1051, close 1086; we long at globex 1056, 1/2 profit taking at 1072-3, trailing 2/2]

Attempt trade for 05/07/2002 Tuesday <$$>

Target 1050 achieved! Let's see how it would open.
FOMC today. Before announcement (11:10), there should be a bounce; but it should plunge to 1043 first before 7:45AM.
Resistance 1056.50. If this level is intact and open below it. Aggresive trade: try to scalp short one more time for 1043. Let's see how it would open.
If opened gap up between 1057-60, short again for 1043-4.

Then ready to reverse to buy side for 20 ~25 points bounce; only if the selling momentum is not strong. Becuase a strong selling mometum can take sp to 1035 or lower.

Morning update: 1059.75 stop, selling bias, target 1052.

[Result: open 1057.50, high 1059.75, low 1045.75, close 1047.50; we shorted at 1057.75 and 1058.75, took profit at 1053-2; after covering, short again at 1055.25 to 1053 profit taking; afternoon shorted again 1055.75-1056 with 1057.25 stop, took profit at 1052-53 and started to trail.]

Attempt trade for 05/06/2002 Monday <$$>

Resistance (stop) 1078. Two scenarios ahead of FOMC.
(1) Consoldation between 1078 and 1068 (or 1079-1069)
(2) Just plunge to 105x (1055-1050).

Aggressive trade: stop 1078.25, if there is a chance, short at Globex.

[Result: high 1076.50, low 1050, close 1051.50]

Attempt trade for 05/03/2002 Friday <$/!>

Estimate: >>Average Hourly Earnings 0.2>> Average Workweek 34.2 >>Nonfarm Payrolls 50,000>> Unemployment Rate 5.8
Nasdaq stocks were back down again. Without stocks cooperation, index can hardly have a decent advance.

If 1095-7 failed or not even test Thursday's 1093 high, sp could start to swing between 1090-1060 for two weeks while stocks could keep drifting lower. Avoid trying to trade stocks aggressively based on index. If market can not take 1097 out (or even 1095) with good report, it would indicate more up side in doublt and we will be back to short side again. Support 1078, resistance 1095-98. 1078 violation will trigger 1074 testing before 9:00AM. If report is neutral, try to scalp short side for 1074 testing before 9:00 before reversal.

Pre-Opening Update: Stop 1086.25, selling bias, target 1073-4 testing.

[Result: Open gap down at 1082.75, high 1082.75, low 1068.75, close 1073. Morning trade shorted from 1084 10 mins before the opening, took profit at 1074; mid-day shorted again, stopped out 1 point.]

Attempt trade for 05/02/2002 Thursday <!/$>

Scenario #1: If testing 1097 on Thursday. Support/stop 1085, buying bias, target 1095, 1099. Target could be hit before Thursday close. Even if 1097 pivot is not hit on Thursday; Friday's job report could have it just skip this 1097 pivot and open gap up!

Scenario #2: If testing is on Friday; then trading range 1090~1080 +/- 1 point. If breakout 1097 on Friday, Thursday should be 10 pts trading range (1090-1080 +/- 1 pt), 1085 violation will trigger 1081.

[Result: Open 1087.5, high 1092.25, low 1079.50, close 1084.75. Morning trade stopped out with 1 pt; afternoon, shorted from 1086.25, took 1/2 profit 1082-81, shorted again 1084.25 with 1084.75 stop, took 1/2 profit 1080, shorted again 83.25 with 1083.5 trailing exit.]

Attempt trade for 05/01/2002 Wednesday <!/$>

If it opens below 1079.25, then could be a choppy and little weak day.

If opens above 1079.25 then bullish.

Trading range 1080-1070 or 1085-1075.

It needs to close above 1075 pivot support for market to rally to 109x area before end of this week.

Opening update: Before 9:30, selling bias, reverse to buy side 9:30.

[Result: Open 1076.50, low 1064.25, high 1089.50, close 1087.50; we shorted with profit but missed buy side by 45 minutes, becuase market reversed 45 minutes earlier than we expected; but chased buy from 1081]

Attempt trade for 04/30/2002 Tuesday <$>

Trading range: 1064~1074.
Short high, buy low; or buy low sell high.

Watch out for month end. window-dressing behavior -- up side.

Opening update: If 1173.75 is broken, then market will reverse up for next target 1083....

Afternoon update: Market will test 1076-75 before 12:30pm

[Result: Open 1067.75, high 1083.50, low 1063.75, close 1076.75; 1073.754 broken and it hit 1073, market did plunge to test 1076-75 afternoon.]

 

 

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