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Trade for 03/31/2005 Thursday

Globex: Stop 1182, buying bias, target 1188

At opening: Support 1182; Stop 1182.50, buying bias, target1187-1188 again.

7:00AM: Stop 1189. short side; 7:05AM, Stop 1188.25, short side, take profit 1185.25-1185.

7:45: New stop 1187, short again, target 1180.

After 8:00: Then short again after 8:00 with 1187 stop. (Stopped out 1187.25)

After 9:00: Stop 1186.25, shorting, target 81-80 (82.50 is good enough). Then reverse to buy side with 1180 stop

After 9:30: Stop 1181, buy side, target 1185-86.

After 9:40: Stop 1182, buy side, target 1185-1187. Expected closing range 1185.

After 11:00: Stop 1182.75, buying bias again, target 1185-1187. Expected closing range 1185.

[Result: Globex low 1184.25, Globex high 1188.25, Day high 1188.25, day low 1182, closed 1183.50]

Trade for 03/30/2005 Wednesday

Globex: Stop 1176, buying bias, target 1173.

At opening: Stop 1174, short side. (stopped out 1 pt)

After stop-out: Stop 1172.50, buy side.

After first hour: Stop 1176, short side, target 1173. (stopped out 1 pt)

after 7:50: Stop 1177.50, short side scalping take 1-2 pts profit. 1180 is valid later. (Partial profit, partial stopped out 1 point.)

After stop-out: Support 1175, buying bias, target 1184, 87.

Midday: Stop 1177, buying bias, target 1185-86

Afternoon: Stop 1177, there should be one last chance market will pull back below 1180 for re-entry.

Final hour: Stop 1177, buying bias, should keep long overnight.

[Result: Globex low 1169, Day high 1185.75, day low 1171.50, closed 1185.50]

Trade for 03/29/2005 Tuesday

Globex: Stop 1180.25, selling bias, target 1175, and 1172 not ruled out tomorrow before 8:15AM.

At opening: Stop 1179. seilling bias, target 1176, 1172.

Morning: Then bounce, short again with 1179.50 stop. (stopped out 1 point); After stop-out, stop 1179, buy side, for target 1183-84.

After 8:00: Stop 1183, selling bias again, target 1177; and 1176.25 violation = more selling to 1170-1172.

Midday: Stop 1176.50, short again 1175.50, target 1168-69; then bounce short again with same stop.

Afternoon: Stop 1172.50, short again, target 1168-1167.

Final hour: Don't try to buy, because market will kill stubborn buyers by lower low. Keep short trailing for end of day target 1168.50 and lower low.

[Result: Day high 1183.25, day low 1166.75, closed 1169.75]

Trade for 03/28/2005 Monday

Globex: Stop 1173.50, buying bias, target 1179.50, 1183, 1189.

Morning: Stop 1175, buy side; stop 1179.75 for short side scalping, target 1178, 1176. (short side stopped out 1 pt)

Then: Stop 1178, for target 1182, 1186.

After 8:00: Stop 1183, short side target 1179.50

After 10:00: Stop 1180.50, short side again, target 1176. (stopped out 1 pt)

Afernoon: 1182.25, short side, target 1179.50, 1176.

[Result: Day high 1183.50, day low 1176, closed 1177.25]

Trade for 03/24/2005 Thursday Friday market closed for Easter holiday.

Globex: Stop 1179, short side. (stopped out)

At 6:47: Stop 1179-79.50, buy side target 1183-84.

7:55: Stop 1179.50 for buy side scalping. (stopped out 0.50 pt)

After 8:00: Stop 1180-1180.50, short side, target 1176-1175

MIdday: choppy. Side line

After 11:40: Stop 1182, shorting, target 1178.50-1179.50; if 78 is broken, then more selling for 1174-1175.

Final hour: Stop 1180, selling bias, target 1174-1175

[Result: Day high 1184.25, day low 1174.25, closed 1175.75]

Trade for 03/23/2005 Wednesday CPI report

Globex: Before CPI report, Stop 1171.50, buy side, target 1177.

At Opening: 1177 resistance, 1170 support, 1173.50 choppy; choppy day do not overtrade.

After opening: stop 1177.25, short side, target 1173.50.

Morning: Stop still 77, short bounce again, target still 1173.50-74.

After 8:00: Stop 1176.50, short again. (stopped out 1 point)

After stop-out: Stop 1173.50, buy side, target 1180. Aggressive stop 1176, buying for target 1180.

MIdday: Choppy. Side line.

Afternoon: Stop 1179, shorting, target 1174.50

Final hour: Stop 1179, selling, target 1174.50.

[Result: Globex low 1171.75 before 1171.50, Globex 1166.50. Globex low 1168.75 after CPI report; Morning low 1172, Day high 1180.25, Closed 1174.50]

Trade for 03/22/2005 Tuesday PPI report & FOMC 0.25 rate hike.

Globex: Support 1184, buying bias, target 1192, 1194

At Opening: Stop 1187, buying bias, target 1192, 1194

Midday: Start to take profit above 1193

After FOMC: Start to take profit above 1193.

11:30: Stop 1191, selling bias, target 1182.

Afternoon: Stop 1181, buy side scalping, target 1185. (Stopped out 1 pt)

After stop-out: Stop 1182, 1181, selling again, target 1177-1175.

Final hour: Stop 1179.50, selling bias, target 1172-1170.

[Result: Globex low 1184.50, Morning low 1188, Day high 1193.75, Day low 1172, Closed 1173.25]

Trade for 03/21/2005 Monday

Pre-opening: Resistance 1195. Stop 1194.50, short side, target 1190-1189.

At Opening: Stop 1194.50, short side, target 1190-1189; then 1187 stop for buy side. If 1187 is violated, then reverse to short selling again for target 1183~1182; then reverse to buying bias, target 1190-1191

Midday: Taking profit 1190-1191, then buy again with 1185 support, target 1190-1191

[Result: Globex high 1193.50, Day high 1192.75, Day low 1182.50, Closed 1185.75]

Trade for 03/18/2005 Friday

At Opening: Stop 1191.50, buy side, target 1199 if 6:45 report is good.

After 6:45 sentiment report: Stop 1196.50, selling bias, first target 1193.75 and target 1192, then stop 1191, reverse to buy side for target 1195.50.

After 7:30, stop 1195.50, selling bias again, target 1189.75.

After 8:00, stop 1193.50, short again. (Stopped out 1 point)

Midday: After 9:30 we still favor short side; resistance 1195, selling bias, target 187-1185.

After 10:00: Stop tailing 1191, short again 1190.50, target 1187-1185.

Then short bounce again with 1191 stop. (Stopped out 1 point)

After 11:00: Stop 1190, short again, target 1187-83.

Then bounce short again with 1191 stop. (Stopped out 1 point)

[Result: Day high 1196.50, Day low 1186.50, Closed 1190.50]

Trade for 03/17/2005 Thursday

Pre-opening: Stop 1190, still buying bias, target 1199 before 11:00am

At Opening: Stop 1190, still buying bias, target 1195, 1199.

Midday: Stop 1197.50, short side scalping, target 1194.50; then bounce short again with 1196 stop. (Stopped out 1 pt)

Afternoon: Stop 1194.75, buy side, target 1199.

Final hour: Stop 1197.50, selling bias, target 1194.50. We are still favoring short side tomorrow.

[Result: Day high 1198, Day low 1190.25, Closed 1194.25]

Trade for 03/16/2005 Wednesday

Pre-opening: Stop 1195.75, buy side, target 1200.

At Opening: Stop 1195.75, buy side, target gap filling; then reverse to short selling.

After 7:30: Try to reverse to selling bias, stop 1199-1199.50, target 1192.

Midday: Stop 1197.50, still selling bias, target 1189.50-1188.50, just a matter of time !

Final hour: Stop 1188, reverse to buy side and carry long overnight.

[Result: Globex high 1206.50, Globex low 1196.50, Day high 1199.50, Day low 1189.50, Closed 1192]

Trade for 03/15/2005 Tuesday

At Globex: Support 1206, 1208; resistance 1215.

Pre-opening: Stop 1216.25, short side, target 1212.50.

At Opening: Stop 1216.25, short side, target 1212.50, 1210; Then 1209 for buy side.

After 7:30: Stop 1214, target 1210-1209.

Midday: Stop 1207.75, scalp buy side. (stopped out 1pt)

After 10:00: Stop 1109.50, short bias, target 1204.

Bounce: Stop 1107.50, short bounce again. (Stopped out 1pt)

Final hour: Stop 1108, short side, target 1202.25 destined. It will be closed at day low. Trailing for globex 1206.50 for short side. Keep in mind 1196 target tomorrow.

[Result: Globex high 1216.25, globex low 1209.25, Day high 1215.50, Day low 1201.75, closed 1212.75]

Trade for 03/14/2005 Monday

At Globex: Stop/trailing 1208.75 for short side, target 1204.

At Opening: Stop 1208.50, short side, target 1204.50; then 1204 stop for buy side. If 1204 is intact by 7:30AM, then 1204 will be stop for buying bias. (Short side stopped out 1 pt)

Midday: Do not overtrade.

Final hour: Agg stop 1209, buy side, target 1214.

[Result: Globex high 1208.50, globex low 1204.25, Day high 1212.50, Day low 1203.75, closed 1212.25]

Trade for 03/11/2005 Friday

At Globex: Stop 1217.25, selling bias, target 1213-1212; if report is good, it would test 1219.

At Opening: Stop 1217.25, selling bias, target 1213-1212. After target hit, then bounce short again. (Stopped out 1 pt)

Midday: Stop 1213, short side, target 1208;

Then stop 1207, reverse to buy side scalping. (Buy side stopped out 1 pt)

Midday: Stop 1208.25, short side, target 1203-02.

Afternoon: Short bounce again.

Final 30 mins: Short again with 1207.25, target 1204.50.

[Result: Globex high 1216.50, globex low 1213.25, Day high 1218.50, Day low 1202.50, closed 1215.25]

Trade for 03/10/2005 Thursday June Contract started.

At opening: Stop 1217.25 and 1215.25, selling bias, targer 1211.50, 1209; then 1208 support for buy side.

After 1208 stopped out: Reverse to short again for target 1205; then 1203 support for buying bias, target 1212. Before 8:30, just selling bias; try to buy after 8:30.

Morning: Stop 1207, buying bias, target 1214, 15, 16; then stop 1217, reverse to shorting bias, target 1212

Afer shorting: Short bunce again with 1216.50 stop.

[Result: Day low 1205.50, Day high 1216.25, closed 1214.25]

Trade for 03/09/2005 Wednesday

At opening: Resistance 1221. Stop 1219, short again, target 1215.50, 1213, 1210. Possible close at any day low.

Morning: Stop 1221, selling bias, target 1212.

Midday: Trading range 1216-1220; try to short high, buy low; 1216 violation, then target 1211; then bounce short again with 1214.50 stop (short again stopped out)

After stopped out: Stop 1216.25, still selling bias, target 1208.50, 1205.50; keep trailing for overnight target 1205-1204 then reverse to buy side.

[Result: Day low 1206.50, Day high 1220.25, closed 1207]

Trade for 03/08/2005 Tuesday

At opening: Stop 1228, short side, target 1221.50, 1216.50

After opening: Stop 1226.50, short side ,target 1222.

Morning: Stop 1224, short bounce again. (Stopped out 1 pt)

Midday: One last stop 1224.50, short side. Target 1210 tomorrow and Target 1205 before weekend. Short side Position trailing 1227.

[Result: Day low 1218.50, Day high 1226.50, closed 120.25]

Trade for 03/07/2005 Monday

At opening: Stop 1229, short side, 1223-1224. (stopped out 1 point)

Midday: STop 1229.75, short side, target 1223-1224; target 1222 tomorrow.

[Result: Day low 1223.25, Day high 1229.75, closed 1225.50]

Trade for 03/04/2005 Friday

Globex: Stop 1208, buying bias, target 1220; 1212 violation breakout for adding more. Better buy at Globex instead of day session

At opening: Stop 1215, still buying bias, target 1221-1223.

Midday: Support 1215-1216, buying bias, target 1225. Watch out for topping on next Tuesday !

[Result: Globex low 1209.25, opened gap up at 1217.50, Day low 1215.25, Day high 1225.75, closed 1224.75]

Trade for 03/03/2005 Thursday

Pre-opening: Stop 1210, buy side, target 1216-17.

At opening: Stop 1213.25, buy side, target 1216.50 (stopped out 0.75)

After 7:00: Stop 1214.50, short side, target 1212, 1208...

Then: Stop 1210.50, more selling bias, target 1205; then stop 1204.50, reverse to buying bias, target 1210.

Midday: Stop 1206, buying bias for reentry, target 1214-1215.

Expected closing range 1210-1211. Target 1220 for tomorrow.

[Result: Day low 1204.50, Day high 1216.75, closed 1210]

Trade for 03/02/2005 Wednesday

Pre-opening: Stop 1208, short side, target 1203.75-1203; then reverse to buy side.

At opening: Stop 1208, short side. (stopped out 0.75 pt).

After 8:00: Stop 1211.50, short side one more time. (stopped out)

After stop-out: Stop 1211, buy side, target 1216-17.

Midday: Stop 1217, short side, target 1213-12; then stop 1211.50 stop for buy side, if 1211.50 broken reverse to short again for target 1208-1207;

Bounce: Stop 1210, short again, target 1207.50. Target 1220 before weekend.

[Result: Day low 1207.25, Day high 1217, closed 1209.75]

Trade for 03/01/2005 Tuesday

At opening: Stop 1207.25 for short side, target 1203. (Stopped out 0.75)

After stop-out: Stop 1206, buy side, target 1213.

After 7:00: Stop 1208, buy side, target 1212.50-1213.

Midday: Support 1206, buy side, target 1210; possible closing range 1211-1209.

[Result: Day low 1207.25, Day high 1213.25, closed 1210.25]

Trade for 02/28/2005 Monday

At opening: Stop 1212.75, selling, target 1207.

After 7:30: Stop 1210.75, short after 7:35, target 1207. (Stopped out 0.75)

After 8:00: (MA) Short again 1210.50; 9:00 added short after 1206 violation for target 1202 and follow thru target 1199-1198.

9:45: The only stop we have now for buy side is 1197.75.

Midday: With profit, short bounce again with 1202 stop. (Stopped out 1 pt)

After stop-out: Stop 1200, buy side, target 1206,

Afternoon: Stop 1202, buy side, target 1208. Target 1220 for weekend.

[Result: Globex 1214.75, Day low 1198.25, Day high 1208.50, closed 1204.75]

Trade for 02/25/2005 Friday

At opening: Support 1197, buying bias, target 1206; before 7:00 report, try short side scalping with 1202.25 stop for target 1199-1198; then reverse to buy side for target 1206-07. (Short side stopped out 0.75 pt)

After 7:30: Stop 1201, buying bias, target 1207-08 resistance.

Pull back: Stop 1206-1207, buying again, target 1211-13

Midday: Support 1206-07, buying bias, target 1213.

Afternoon: Trailing stop 1208-09, target 1213 still valid.

[Result: Day low 1199.50, Day high 1213.25, closed 1212.25]

Trade for 02/24/2005 Thursday

At opening: Stop 1193.25, short side, target 1188, 1186.50; then reverse to buy side with 1186 stop.

After 7:00: Short again. (stopped out 1 pt)

After stop-out: Stop 1190, buying again, target 1194.

Midday: Trading range 1193.50~1188.50.

Afternoon: Stop 1192.50, short side, target 1188-89. (partital profit, partial breakeven)

Then: Stop 1190, buying bias, target 1194.50, 1195.50, 1200

Final hour: Stop 1195, still buying bias, pull back, buy again, target still 1200~1201. Target 1206 tomorrow and 1211 is not ruled out.

[Result: Day low 1188, Day high 1201.50, closed 1200.75]

____________________________________________________________________

The 7th Year of Accuracy

The following are what we have called for year 2003. We have called the yearly low on March 12 bottom and the yearly high 1100 or higher. Please click here for detail.

 

<3/11/2003 Tue > Keep in mind shorting at 808 area could be tempting, but market is working on major daily reversal up. Any short attempt could kick a trader out of the up trend game. We have had enough shorting trades for past 3 months don't be obsessed with it again, at least for a day or two.

Attempt trade for 03/11/2003 Tuesday Globex and opening: Stop 812, selling bias, target 800. Afternoon: Stop 807.75, short again, target 800-798. [Result: Globex high 812, day high 814, low 799, close 800.50]

<3/12/2003 Wed> Attempt trade for Wednesday: support 785-788, buying bias, target 826-828

<3/13 Thu> We called: Up trend started!

<5/01/2003 Thu> It is not what it looks like. Don't try to call top! We still stick to up trend

<6/03/2003 Tue> Warning: Don't be obsessed with calling top. A lot of Fib analysts have been trying to call a top for last 4 weeks and all failed. It is exactly the same behavior when market trend is down and they would keep calling the bottom. They could be right once after calling 10 times wrong.

<7/13/2003 Sun> Main trend is up, short term trend is in correction/consolidation mode.

<8/24/2003 Sun> Keep in mind main trend is still up. Pull back is just for correction only. 1020, 1050, 1065,...

<9/02/2003 Sun> Still up trend. Pivot 999, target 1020, ...

<9/07/2003 Sun> Main trend is still up, major support 1003. It is in correction/consolidation mode now. Try to buy again after correction. (September contract is to roll over to December on Thursday. Symbol: ES03Z)

<10/27/2003 Mon> A lot ofanalysts are calling sp 950, just DO NOT listen to them.

<10/30/2003 Thu> After breaking this 1040 and staying above it, market has completed the correction. This morning's strong GDP report confirmed this sp 1100 and higher before year end. Last week's correction hit 1016 only, we don't think it will be tested again with this strong GDP report. Should stick to buy side. Bigger picture: SP 1100 before x'mas. If there is one more pull back for correction in next 2-3 days, we don't think it will violate 1030 again. strong support 1040 and 1030-1035.